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How better understanding risk can boost your investments

The ‘right type of risk’ can transform people’s finances in a positive way, according to a new study.

Few investors like taking risks with their money. The chance of losing your hard-earned cash is never an appealing prospect.

However, the harsh reality is you need to embrace some risk to stand any prospect of making decent returns with interest rates being so low.

When you consider inflation is around 3% at a time when the Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee has set the base rate at just 0.5%, the imbalance is clear.

The right type of risk can also transform people’s lives in a positive way, according to a new study from Investec Click & Invest.

The survey found almost half of investors could put more aside for a rainy day, 38% had made home improvements, while a third were able to buy a house earlier.

It has also positively helped many of them with their financial situations, with 28% able to retire earlier and a quarter paying off long-term debts more quickly.

Jane Warren, chief executive officer at Investec Click & Invest, agreed risk-taking could be intimidating but insisted the study illustrated the potential benefits.

“This is especially (the case) when it comes to achieving some of those key goals in life such as getting on the housing ladder and making provisions for the future,” she said.

The key, she believes, is empowering people to make these decisions and begin improving their financial futures.

“We believe more needs to be done to educate potential investors about the benefits of investing so that it doesn’t always feel like a giant leap and is an educated decision,” she said.

It’s another point highlighted by the Investec study, which revealed confidence, knowledge and experience were the key barriers to taking risks.

Of those that hadn’t invested, around a third would do so if they were more knowledgeable and 27% if they better understood the risks involved.

Meanwhile, more than half (54%) simply believe that their savings are more secure in a savings account rather than investing it in the stock market.

However, there is also the prospect of risk regret. When reviewing their life decisions, almost a third regretted taking too few risks, according to the survey.

More than one in 10 people (12%) regret not investing in the stock market at all or not doing it earlier – and this figure rises to 15% of 18-34-year olds.

Delaying retirement savings is also a key regret, with almost a fifth of 18- to 34-year-olds (18%) wishing they had started a pension earlier, while 18% of women have the same regret.

Embrace risk, but find a balance

While humans are naturally cautious, they are also curious and only grow through taking risks, according to psychologist Corinne Sweet.

While the more introverted tend to be risk-averse, the more extroverted will generally be more adventurous.

“Finding a balance, and branching out, even taking risks, is what keeps us alive and moving forward as a species,” she said.

The key, of course, is taking enough risk to improve your chances of hitting financial goals, while at the same time not gambling everything you have saved on the stock market.

Choosing the right investments depends on your financial goals, such as putting your children through university or helping them get on to the property ladder.

It will also depend on how quickly your money is needed. For example, if you have a decade to earn a set amount you may be able to take more risk with your money.

Of course, there are ways to help mitigate the risk being taken. One suggestion is to invest in stages rather than as a lump sum.

Although you can’t eliminate risk from your investments – and nor should you because it is needed for the pursuit of decent longer-term gains – you can manage it better.

The first way is through having exposure to a broad range of asset classes. This is known as diversification and involves investing in a variety of asset classes.

The idea behind diversification is that any losses suffered in one asset class should be balanced out by gains made elsewhere.

Investing at different times will also help reduce your timing risk and enable you to take advantage of any stock market falls.

Another option – which takes this idea a step further – is investing regular amounts each month in a process known as pound cost averaging.

Investors pay a set monthly figure to buy units of a fund – at whatever price they are available.

Therefore, if you regularly invest £200 into the fund and have been buying units at £8 each, when they fall down to £6 you will get more units for your money.

Source: Love Money

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Economic Calendar – Top 5 Things to Watch This Week

Global financial markets will focus on this week’s Federal Reserve policy meeting, which will be the last under the leadership of Janet Yellen before she hands the chairmanship over to Jerome Powell.

There are also some major data releases in the coming week, as the calendar rolls to February from January, with Friday’s monthly employment data in the spotlight.

Meanwhile, in Europe, investors will await monthly inflation data to assess how fast the European Central Bank will start unwinding its asset purchase program.

In the UK, traders will focus on a pair of reports on activity in the manufacturing and construction sectors for further hints on the health of the economy and the likelihood of the Bank of England raising interest rates this year.

Elsewhere, market participants will be looking ahead to monthly data on China’s manufacturing sector amid recent signs that momentum in the world’s second largest economy remains strong.

Ahead of the coming week, Investing.com has compiled a list of the five biggest events on the economic calendar that are most likely to affect the markets.

1. Federal Reserve Rate Decision

The Federal Reserve is not expected to take action on interest rates at the conclusion of its two-day policy meeting at 2:00PM ET (1900GMT) on Wednesday, keeping it in a range between 1.25%-1.50%.

The central bank will release its post-meeting statement as investors look for any change in language which could point more clearly to a rate hike in the months ahead.

This week’s meeting will be the last under the leadership of Janet Yellen, before she is replaced by Fed Governor Jerome Powell.

The majority of economists believe that the Fed will hike rates in March, followed by another hike in June, with a third move higher arriving in December.

2. U.S. Employment Report

The U.S. Labor Department will release its January nonfarm payrolls report at 8:30AM ET (1330GMT) on Friday.

The consensus forecast is that the data will show jobs growth of 180,000, after rising by 148,000 in December. The unemployment rate is forecast to hold steady at 4.1%. Most of the focus will likely be on average hourly earnings figures, which are expected to rise 0.3% after gaining 0.3% a month earlier.

This week’s calendar also features reports on personal income and spending, which includes the personal consumption expenditures inflation data, the Fed’s preferred metric for inflation.

Data on consumer confidence, ADP private sector payrolls, pending home sales, ISM manufacturing sector growth, weekly jobless claims, construction spending, auto sales and factory orders will also be on the agenda.

Meanwhile, for the stock market, more than a fifth of the S&P 500 companies release earnings, with reports from tech heavyweights Facebook (NASDAQ:FB), Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL), Amazon (NASDAQ:AMZN), Alphabet (NASDAQ:GOOGL), Microsoft (NASDAQ:MSFT) and Alibaba (NYSE:BABA) likely to garner most of the attention.

Results from Dow components Boeing (NYSE:BA), AT&T (NYSE:T) and McDonald’s (NYSE:MCD) as well as big oil firms ExxonMobil (NYSE:XOM) and Chevron(NYSE:CVX) will also be in focus.

On the political front, another headliner this week will be President Donald Trump’s State of the Union address on Tuesday. The theme of Trump’s address will be “building a safe, strong and proud America,” a senior administration official told reporters on Friday.

According to the White House, the speech will focus on five main policy areas: jobs and the economy, infrastructure, immigration, trade and national security.

3. Euro Zone Flash Inflation

The euro zone will publish flash inflation figures for January at 1000GMT (5:00AM ET) Wednesday.

The consensus forecast is that the report will show consumer prices rose 1.3%, slowing slightly from 1.4% in December, remaining short of the European Central Bank’s target of just below 2%. Perhaps more significantly, the core figure, without volatile energy and food prices, is seen inching up to 1.0% from 0.9% a month earlier.

Germany, France, Italy and Spain will produce their own CPI reports throughout the week.

In addition to the inflation data, the euro zone will publish a preliminary report on fourth-quarter economic growth on Tuesday, which if they remain strong could push the European Central Bank another step closer to ending its mass stimulus program.

The region’s economy is forecast to expand 0.6% in the June-Sept. period, equivalent to an annualized 2.7%.

The ECB reiterated last week that it will keep its €2.5 trillion stimulus program in place for as long as needed and stated that there are “very few chances” that it will change interest rates this year. Despite those remarks, market players remain convinced that easy monetary policy in the region is coming to an end sooner rather than later.

The central bank cut its monthly bond purchases from €60 billion to €30 billion back in October, but extended the program until the end of September 2018, citing muted price pressures.

4. U.K. PMI’s

The U.K. will release readings on January manufacturing sector activity at 0930GMT (4:30AM ET) on Thursday, followed by a report on the construction sector on Friday.

The manufacturing PMI is forecast to ease up to 56.5 from 56.3 a month earlier, while construction activity is expected to weaken slightly to 52.0 from 52.2.

Data released last week showed Britain’s economy unexpectedly picked up speed in the last three months of 2017, revealing that Brexit was still weighing on the economy, but not as heavily as once feared by investors.

Politics is also likely to be in focus, as market participants keep an ear out for any news regarding the ongoing Brexit negotiations.

The Bank of England raised interest rates for the first time in more than ten years in November, but said it sees only gradual rises ahead as Britain prepares to leave the European Union.

5. Chinese Manufacturing PMI

The China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing is to release data on January manufacturing sector activity at 0100GMT on Wednesday, amid expectations for a modest downtick to 51.5 from a reading of 51.6 in December.

The Caixin manufacturing index, which focuses more on small and mid-sized firms, is due at 0145GMT Friday. The survey is expected to dip by 0.2 points to 51.3.

The purchasing managers’ index (PMI) is seen as a good indicator of economic conditions and it is even preferred by some analysts to gross domestic product, which might be affected by poor seasonal adjustment and is prone to revisions.

Anything above 50.0 signals expansion, while readings below 50.0 indicate industry contraction.

China’s economy grew 6.8% in the fourth-quarter from a year earlier, helped by a rebound in the industrial sector, a resilient property market and strong export growth.

Source: Investing

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How to make 2018 your richest year yet

January is probably the tightest year of the month for many of us as we recover from the financial hit of the festive season.

But if you’ve overdone it on spending, there are some tricks you can use that will not only go some way to repairing the damage, but will also help to set you up for a more financially successful year ahead.

Financial experts have shared their top tips and predictions for the year ahead with Femail to ensure you use upcoming changes in legislation and interest rates to your advantage and boost your bank balance.

From investing in gold to purchasing second-hand jewellery with a renowned brand name such as Tiffany, these are the hacks that will ensure 2018 is your most abundant year yet.

‘The bank of England Base rate is likely to increase over the next couple of years to around per cent according to the Governor, Mark Carney,’ said Mark Homer, co-founder of Progressive Property.

‘As long term fixed rate mortgages are still cheap a 10 year fix may be preferable. Barclays has a 10 year fix at 2.69 per cent which just has to be a good deal.’

Some of the cheapest fixed rate deals have been removed by banks because of the interest rate rise, so if you’re looking to remortgage in 2018, you could well end up on a higher rate.

But Tashema Jackson, money expert at uSwitch.com points out that rates have only gone back to 0.5 per cent, where they sat for almost nearly nine years – so there’s no need to panic about them shooting up just yet. 

‘However, don’t be seduced into thinking that a lower interest rate is automatically cheaper,’ she said. ‘Take some time to calculate if the lower rate and higher fee is actually cheaper. It could save you a fair bit of money in the long run.’

She added that it’s crucial not to rely solely on information from your broker.

‘Many mortgage brokers will have exclusive deals from particular banks,’ she explained.

‘That’s why searching and comparing what is on offer from different providers can really help give you a better understanding about what is currently on offer from the mortgage market,’ she explained.

Don’t assume this means you know best, but being informed is always worthwhile. You may be able to give yourself a leg up before committing on a particular one.’

‘When the initial term of a mortgage ends, lenders transfer customers onto their Standard Variable Rate (SVR). This typically has a much higher rate of interest,’ said Ishaan Malhi, CEO and founder of online mortgage broker Trussle.

‘Nationwide is offering a two-year fixed rate of 1.99 per cent while their SVR sits at 3.99 per cent, for example.

Set a reminder to look into your options with a broker three months before your initial term ends to avoid paying over the odds. Just one month on your lender’s SVR can cost you hundreds of pounds in extra interest.

‘Interest rates may have crept up recently but they’re still historically low,’ Ishaan added. ‘If you’re in a position where you can afford to overpay on your mortgage, this is a good idea as it can reduce your overall debt. This will be harder to do when interest rates rise further, which they may do in the coming years.

‘Check with your lender about how much you can overpay by each month since there’s usually a limit before a penalty applies. For most fixed-rate deals this is usually up to 10 per cent of the remaining mortgage balance per year.’

Mark Homer More points out that permitted development rights for homeowners are likely to come in the New Year from the government.

This will likely allow people to extend their properties and make other alterations without the need for planning permission.

‘Rather than Moving house this could be a great option for those looking for more space who also would like to create equity in their home,’ he added.

Experts at Hitachi Personal Finance agree that you should look to improve rather than move.

‘Typical property prices jumped around £85,000 in the first half of 2017,’ they said.

‘So spending on property renovations instead – such as creating an extra room out of wasted loft space, new kitchens or bathrooms – could potentially add significantly more space, and serious value too. The average a loft conversion could add to the value of your home is 12 per cent, so it’s well worth considering all options.’

Mark Homer recommends Paragon Bank, who is offering a 120 day notice savings account at 1.45 per cent which trumps savings products offered elsewhere.

‘Should you be happy locking your money away for four months this would appear to be a good option to help reduce the effect of inflation on your capital,’ he said.

Julian Hynd, Chief Deposits Officer at Ford Money says that a number of factors could push up interest rates in the coming year.

‘The Bank of England is expected to increase the base rate further, while the Funding for Lending Scheme (FLS) to boost bank lending to households and companies comes to an end in January,’ he said.

‘Our research shows that almost three in five UK savers do not know what interest rate their account pays while nearly half only review their accounts once a year or less.

‘Finding a savings account that pays a fair and consistent rate over time could mean one less thing for savers to be worried about with any interest rate changes and ensure savers get the most out of their money.’

Jamie Smith-Thompson at pension advice specialists, Portafina, explained: ‘You don’t have to be Nostradamus to predict that Brexit will continue to create economic uncertainty in 2018. And this could leave people facing sudden changes in circumstances that put a strain on personal finances. One of the best ways to counter this uncertainty is to keep six months’ worth of outgoings as an emergency fund. It can soften the blow of any nasty surprises and give you the time and space needed to make the best decisions.’

Jamie Smith – Financial Adviser at Foster Denovo comments predicts a change to pension tax relief in the next 12 months.

This is most likely to be in the form of a reduction to the annual allowance, which is the amount that can be saved into a pension scheme and still benefit from tax relief within a given tax year,’ he said.

‘Although a reduction would not affect the vast majority of people, those who can afford to maximise pension funding should consider doing so before any new restrictions are introduced.’

Jamie warns of growing instability in the UK due to uncertainty around Brexit and recent downgrading of growth forecasts.

‘Anyone within a few years of accessing any stock-market linked savings should be reviewing their portfolios and the underlying risks,’ he said.

‘For example, if you are planning to retire over the next few years you may want to consider de-risking your pension funds and moving these into less volatile asset classes.

‘Some pension providers will do this automatically, which is known as ‘lifestyling’, but certainly many pension plans will not have this function.

‘Those who have a longer term investment horizon of at least five to ten years before they plan to access and spend their savings may not need to be as concerned but it is still a good idea to review their portfolios.’

Adrian Ash, Director of Research at BullionVault – the world’s largest online trading platform for precious metals insists gold will act as a way to protect wealth as well as to increase it in 2018. 

‘Those who forget history are doomed to repeat it, and investors seem to have forgotten both the global financial crisis and the DotCom Crash where gold investing could have helped preserve investors’ wealth,’ he said.

‘Demand for gold sank in 2017 as stock markets surged, yet gold has risen for UK investors in every year that the stock market has fallen by 10 per cent or more.’

Dr. Johnny Hon, Chairman – The Global Group says 2018 provides ‘fantastic opportunity’ for investing in media and entertainment ‘as the global middle class grows and technology develops’.

He added: ‘Virtual Reality (VR) and Augmented Reality (AR), made famous by Pokémon GO, open up new ways of watching and shopping while viewing TV and movie content. Significant returns are to be made here.

‘Property continues to be a good investment and one that again features many innovations. One that will appeal to many younger people in particular, is the new concept of co-living, which, by using shared spaces and facilities, creates a more fulfilling lifestyle, that not only offers concierge and cleaning services, but also creates a genuine sense of community through shared spaces and facilities. With building land at a premium, this has a great future.

Stuart Law, CEO and founder of Assetz Capital says that more people are turning to Peer-to-peer (P2P) as an alternative to saving.

‘P2P platforms directly match people wanting to invest money with those requiring a loan, cutting out the middle-man and giving investors a choice in where their money is lent,’ he explained.

‘The rates of return can be attractive in the current climate of low interest rates, although it’s important to be aware that – as with most investments – capital is at risk and the amount invested is not covered by the Financial Services Compensation Scheme (FSCS) as it would be if held in a bank account.

‘Most P2P lenders are now fully authorised by the Financial Conduct Authority (FCA), but anyone thinking about investing money in this way should still ensure they’re using an approved firm.’

It’s something you might ignore until you’re considering applying for a loan, but it provides a useful snapshot of all your bills from mobile phone, to gas and electricity bills, as well as credit cards, loans and mortgages, according to Tashema Jackson, money expert at uSwitch.com.

‘You’ll also be able to check that all the information it contains is correct,’ she added. If you notice any errors you can contact the relevant lender and ask for them for a correction, but bear in mind that you will be expected to provide proof that a mistake has been made.

‘Doing a bit of research will also let you know if any lenders have a particular offer on, such as cashback on mortgage payments, or preferential interest rates to existing customers.’

Source: Brinkwire

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Five ways to harvest sustainable UK income

Since the financial crisis, investors and savers have seen meagre yields from cash and gilts, with rates anchored at historic lows.

For investors accessing markets to extract additional income, it is more important than ever to navigate stretched valuations across many asset classes. Furthermore, investors must carefully consider the sustainability of income generated from equity and fixed interest investments.

Despite mounting doom and gloom over the UK economy, the outlook for dividends remains sound, recently buoyed by the rapid pound depreciation, which has benefitted overseas earners. Investors should remain wary of dividend concentration, but the UK will continue to be a strong and reliable long-term source of income.

Taking a long-term, value-driven approach, here are five income opportunities in equity and fixed interest markets:

Value opportunities in unrated gems

We have maintained a large exposure to unrated and subordinated debt, mostly in the form of preference shares and Permanent Interest Bearing Shares (PIBS). Just because these types of instruments don’t have a credit rating, does not make them low quality. There are plenty of companies which have taken the decision not to pay for a credit rating and are considered robust businesses – John Lewis a good example.

Which Isa platform should you chose? We compare the different brokers

Insurance company preference shares are a neglected and under-researched area of the market. It is permanent capital for these companies and can provide a rich seam of value and additional yield – for example Royal Sun Alliance, Aviva and General Accident.

Separating the casino from the utility in UK banks

We carried a large underweight to UK banks since the crisis. UK banks entered the financial crisis with very low capital ratios, found dubious ways of complying with Basel III requirements and were, by and large, an ethics-free zone. Furthermore, many banks continue to be encumbered with high-risk investment banking operations. When investing in banks, it is important to separate the casino from the utility.

A decade on, we have seen positive developments among some UK banks, in terms of restructuring and regulatory scrutiny. Following a period of close analysis, we recently took a position in Lloyds – our first domestic UK bank since the crisis. It is a relatively low-risk bank, with 95 per cent of its lending book exposed to the UK and a 25 per cent share of the UK’s current account market. Lloyds is also trading at a historic low – well under half of its pre-crisis share price.

Rock-solid insurance companies

Most of our financial exposure is in insurance, where solvency ratios have been rock solid.  While low interest rates are a drag on performance, we can expect this to turn into a tailwind when rates slowly lift. Strong names in this space include General Accident and Legal & General.

Strong real yields in commercial property

Commercial property also looks solid value. Since the crisis we have seen low levels of property development and vacancy levels remain close to record-low levels. Yields are a very robust 4.5-5 per cent, while rental growth remains positive driven by strong tenant demand. Property rents tend to keep pace with GDP growth over the long-term, so it can be argued this is a 4.5-5 per cent real yield. Picton Property and Londonmetric Property are great ways to gain exposure to this asset class.

Look to Asia’s growth engine

China looms large in the Asia region and for good reason – it is Asia’s growth engine. Every few years we hear a scare story about China – the currency devaluation being the latest – but its economy remains resilient.

10 high yielding shares in the FTSE 100: how safe are their dividends?

The service sector is faring well and consumer sentiment is strong. GDP growth of 6-8 per cent looks achievable to support a more balanced and transitioning economy. While the obvious cheapness has evaporated, Asia remains attractive on a relative global basis. We are currently invested in the region through HSBC, which earns most of its profits in Asia – as well as local companies such as dominant telecom China Mobile. Both yield more than 5 per cent.

Source: Money Observer