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Things to watch out for across the UK property market in 2024

The past year has seen the highest mortgage rates on record, influenced by high inflation, the closure of the Help to Buy scheme and increased costs of living, all of which have put the housing market in a unique position.

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Looking to the future, Pete Mugleston, MD and mortgage expert at Online Mortgage Advisor give his thoughts on what the property market might look like throughout the rest of 2024.

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As we head further into 2024 there is a strong indication that mortgage rates will slowly start to go down, which is great news for anyone who has been putting buying a house on hold. Right now, we’re seeing rates for a two-year fixed mortgage at about 5.95% and a five-year fixed at 5.57%, which is lower than before when you consider they were previously at 6.85% and 6.37% respectively.

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Source: Property Reporter

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Analysis shows long term rebalancing housing market

The average volume of UK properties listed for sale month-on-month rose by 58% in 2023 compared to a year previously, underscoring the rebalancing of supply and demand.

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According to new analysis by estate agency Jackson-Stops, the Isle of Wight was the front runner of this trend, seeing an 83% increase of homes on the market in one year alone, closely followed by Norfolk (78%), Somerset (75%) and Shropshire (75%).

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Jackson-Stops, who analysed average volumes of new listings on Rightmove’s website from 2022 to 2023, say the figures are representative of market resilience.

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Source: Introducer Today

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Will the Held Interest Rate Change the UK Property Market?

The Bank of England (BoE) announced their decision to hold the interest rate for the fifth consecutive time this week.

The current rate of 5.25% is the highest it has been for nearly 16 years, and it has been held at this level since August 2023. Previous to that, there was a run of 14 increases.

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By keeping the interest rate high, the BoE hopes to curb inflation, which is why they have been cautious about cutting rates despite the potential negative economic impact. Inflation has been falling since it peaked in October 2022 and now stands at 3.4%. However, this is still a way off the Bank’s target of 2%.

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Keeping an eye on these economic announcements is vital in all investment property strategies, and those in the property industry have been keenly tracking the changes in rates and sentiment to help them make their current investment decisions.

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Source: RWinvest

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House prices increased 1.5% in March

Increase exceeds historical trends for this time of year

Average house prices in March increased by 1.5% or £5,279 to reach £368,118, according to Rightmove’s latest house price index.

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This represents the largest monthly increase for 10 months, which Rightmove said signalled the continued recovery of the housing market after a muted 2023.

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This 1.5% increase surpasses the typical average rise observed in March, which historically stands at 1%. Year-on-year house prices have increased by 0.8%.

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Source: Housing Today

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Buy-to-Let Watch: Grab 2024 with both hands

Last year’s mortgage market volatility was unprecedented, to say the least.

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We saw ongoing interest-rate rises, consecutive base-rate increases, and a huge (and often contentious) public discussion about what could be the most extensive legislation changes the sector had ever seen, by way of the Renters (Reform) Bill.

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Speaking with industry peers and my landlord clients, it’s fair to say we’re all happy to put 2023 behind us. And, what’s more, this upcoming year shows a much brighter outlook for the property market.

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Mortgage Strategy

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Rental Market Crisis As Demand Continues To Outweigh Supply

Letting agents have highlighted a persistent high demand for rental properties, coupled with a significant decline in available supply. This imbalance is primarily attributed to the dwindling number of new landlords entering the market, exacerbated by existing tenants choosing to stay put to circumvent the hike in rental prices.

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A recent survey conducted by the Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors (RICS) among its members has unveiled a noticeable uptick in tenant demand throughout the three months leading to January. Despite this, there’s a sense of the market cooling off, possibly mitigating the ongoing reduction in new landlord listings.

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Source: Landlord Knowledge

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A third of UK buy-to-let landlords plan to expand portfolios in 2024

Investors are spotting opportunities in the current market as more buy-to-let landlords make plans to snap up further properties in the year ahead.

Market sentiment in the buy-to-let sector has been impacted by a number of factors in recent years, from tax changes to the more recent issue of rising mortgage rates. House prices across much of the country have also slowed their pace of growth – which comes as no surprise after the rapid acceleration of 2020-2022.

However, as is often the case in the UK property market, investors continue to find the most promising assets, in terms of both location and property type, to keep activity strong in the sector. While 2023 was a year of uncertainty, investors are finding more to be positive about for 2024.

Inflation has fallen rapidly from its high point last year, despite the most recent announcement that revealed an small, unexpected rise. Interest rates have also been frozen for some time now, yet lenders have been reducing their rates and unveiling a wider array of products and incentives, including for buy-to-let landlords.

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Along with more positive house price news over the past couple of months, these factors have all combined to influence plans for landlords in the coming 12 months, and the latest research from Together Money has found that more than a third – 34% – of buy-to-let landlords will expand their portfolios this year.

More optimism for landlords

The survey by Together also found that 68% of landlords currently feel optimistic about their business outlook for 2024, despite 10% of respondents saying they they have “reservations”. A quarter of those surveyed also said they were planning to refinance their properties to “support business objectives” this year.

Since the start of 2024, some of the UK’s major banks and building societies have brought fresh, cheaper deals to the table since the start of 2024, including Co-operative Bank, First Direct, HSBC, NatWest, Halifax, Clydesdale Bank and Leeds Building Society, with a number of these lenders also offering buy-to-let mortgage deals.

There is now a growing number of sub-4% mortgage products available for landlords, which is a vast improvement on the peaks of almost 7% last summer. Borrowers are still urged to thoroughly check the details of each product though, as deals with the lowest rate aren’t always the best value for money for every customer.

Of course, some landlords with less borrowing power or those who are simply ready to cash in on their property assets are leaving the market at the moment, but this is also presenting opportunities for portfolio landlords to take on existing buy-to-let properties.

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Should you use a specialist lender?

The research from Together found that 42% of its landlord respondents said they would prioritise using a specialist lender rather than a mainstream one over the next 12 months (although this was specifically related to taking out additional financing for commercial property).

The reasons given were that specialist lenders are often prepared to take on greater risk and offer larger loans, while supporting entrepreneurial plans; an answer which was selected by 39% of respondents. 29% said they’d opt for a specialist lender because they are quicker, while 29% also said they provide the best service.

Where the purchase isn’t straightforward, such as when investing in a house in multiple occupation (HMO), or investing via a limited company, the vast majority of people will need to use a specialist lender. However, for a standard buy-to-let purchase, it is worth including mainstream lenders in your mortgage search.

According to MFS: “Specialist lenders deliver greater flexibility and speed than high street comparatives. Unlike high-street banks, they underwrite their loans manually. This allows them to approach each application on a case-by-case basis.”

The sector is reacclimatising

Chris Baguley, Group Channel Development Director at Together, said: “The short, sharp shock in interest rates since the Covid years triggered some cautiousness in the commercial market while investors were trying to predict where the peak would be. With rates settling, while there is still an overall flattening; activity is returning as the sector reacclimatises to the new environment.

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The Future of the UK Property Market: Analysing Interest Rates in 2024 

Introduction 

The UK property market has always been a significant focus for investors, homeowners, and renters alike. As we look ahead to the year 2024, one crucial factor that will shape the market is interest rates. In this blog post, we will delve into the potential impact of interest rates on the UK property market, exploring the key factors driving their movement and what this might mean for buyers, sellers, and investors. 

Understanding Interest Rates 

Before we discuss the future of interest rates, it’s important to grasp their significance in the property market. Interest rates are set by the Bank of England to control inflation and influence economic growth. When interest rates are low, borrowing becomes cheaper, leading to increased demand in the property market. Conversely, high interest rates can deter potential buyers due to increased mortgage costs. Therefore, fluctuations in interest rates can significantly impact the property market’s dynamics. 

Factors Influencing Interest Rates 

Several factors influence interest rates, and understanding these can help predict their movement in 2024. The Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) considers various economic indicators, such as inflation, GDP growth, and employment rates. Additionally, external factors like global economic conditions and political events can also affect interest rates. As we approach 2024, the Committee will closely monitor these indicators and adjust rates accordingly. 

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The Impact of Interest Rates on Buyers 

Interest rates play a crucial role in determining affordability for potential buyers. In a low-interest-rate environment, mortgage repayments are more manageable, allowing buyers to enter the market and potentially drive up property prices. However, if interest rates rise significantly in 2024, mortgage repayments may become less affordable, leading to reduced demand and potentially stabilizing or lowering property prices. 

The Impact of Interest Rates on Sellers 

Higher interest rates can also affect sellers in the property market. If mortgage costs increase, potential buyers may be deterred, leading to a decrease in demand for properties. This could result in longer selling times and potentially lower sale prices. On the other hand, if interest rates remain low or decrease, sellers may benefit from increased demand and potentially higher sale prices. 

The Impact of Interest Rates on Investors 

Interest rates can significantly impact property investors. Low interest rates make borrowing cheaper, allowing investors to finance their purchases more affordably. This can lead to increased investment activity in the property market. However, if interest rates rise, investors may face higher financing costs, potentially reducing their purchasing power and limiting investment opportunities. 

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Predictions for 2024 

While it is challenging to predict future interest rates with certainty, experts suggest that interest rates in 2024 will largely depend on economic conditions. If the UK economy experiences strong growth, it is likely that interest rates will gradually rise. Conversely, if economic recovery is slower, interest rates are likely to remain low or even decrease further. The Bank of England will continue to monitor economic indicators and adjust rates accordingly to maintain stability. 

Conclusion 

The future of the UK property market in 2024 will be heavily influenced by interest rates. As buyers, sellers, and investors navigate these market dynamics, it is crucial to stay informed about the factors driving interest rate movements. By understanding the impact of interest rates on affordability, demand, and investment opportunities, individuals can make informed decisions in the dynamic landscape of the UK property market in 2024. 

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UK house prices rise for third straight month as mortgage rates fall

Nationwide says average property price was £258,557 in November, £5,231 down on same month last year

UK house prices rose for a third consecutive month in November as the market responded to hopes that mortgage rate costs had peaked.

Nationwide, the UK’s biggest building society, said prices rose 0.2% month on month in November, after a 0.9% rise in October and a 0.1% rise in September. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast a 0.4% fall in prices in November.

It is the first time that homeowners have seen the value of their property rise at least three months in a row since the summer of last year.

On an annual basis, prices were down 2% in November, the best in nine months and after a 3.3% year-on-year fall in October.

The average price of a home was £258,557 in November, £5,231 down on the value of a typical property in the same month last year.

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Nationwide said the improvement in the market has followed the view that the Bank of England’s move to hold the base interest rate at 5.25%, after a run of 14 consecutive increases, means soaring mortgage costs will start to drop, fuelling more activity in the housing market.

“There has been a significant change in market expectations for the future path of the bank rate in recent months which, if sustained, could provide much-needed support for housing market activity,” said Robert Gardner, the chief economist at Nationwide. “By the end of November this had shifted to a view the rates have now peaked and that they will be lowered to about 3.5% in the years ahead.”

In November, the Bank of England kept the rate at 5.25% for a second time, albeit still at a 15-year high, which has helped to push some two- and five-year fixed mortgage rates back down to below 5% – down from peak levels of more than 6%.

Last month, the sharp drop in inflation from 6.7% to 4.6% fuelled hopes that the Bank of England might start cutting rates next year.

However, earlier this week Andrew Bailey, the governor of the Bank of England, said there was no immediate prospect of an interest rate cut as the Bank faces a tough battle to bring inflation back to its 2% target.

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Mark Harris, the chief executive of the mortgage broker SPF, said: “The direction of travel for new mortgage rates is downwards, with a number of lenders making reductions this past week and bringing some early Christmas cheer to borrowers.

“However, while interest rates appear to have peaked, those hoping base rate will move swiftly downwards again to the rock-bottom levels of the recent past are likely to be disappointed. Pricing is higher than borrowers have grown used to over the years, meaning those buyers relying on mortgages are more price-sensitive on the back of ongoing affordability concerns.”

By Mark Sweney

Source: The Guardian

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UK house prices rise at slowest post-summer rate since 2008 crash

UK house prices are rising at the slowest rate for this time of year since the 2008 financial crash, according to new data that highlights the impact on the housing market of higher interest rates.

The average new asking price rose by 0.5% in the month to 7 October to £368,231, but it was the smallest post-summer bump since the 2008 crisis, according to property website Rightmove.

House prices dropped by 0.8% in the 12 months to early October as the lower activity fed through, Rightmove said, while the number of agreed house sales fell by 17% compared with a year earlier.

Separate figures from Halifax bank earlier this month showed the fastest fall in annual house prices in 14 years in September.

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The Bank of England had raised interest rates at 14 consecutive rate-setting meetings up until last month as it tried to tame inflation. In September, its monetary policy committee finally voted to hold its key rate at 5.25%, but that is still the highest rate since the financial crisis of 2008.

Tim Bannister, who studies property data for Rightmove, said asking prices usually rise after the end of the summer holidays, but that the increase this year was “much more subdued” as sellers adjusted to the weaker market.

He said that estate agents were describing the market as “the most price-sensitive ever”. The number of people enquiring about each property advertised on its website was still up by 8% on 2019, before the Covid-19 pandemic.

Renters are being squeezed as landlords try to pass on their higher mortgage costs, amid a continued shortage in housing across much of the country. Separate data from estate agent Hamptons showed that the average rent in Great Britain rose to £1,325 per month in September, up from £1,186 a year earlier.

The steepest rent increases were in outer London, where prices rose by 16.2% on average, compared with 5.2% in Wales, the region with the slowest rental price growth. Overall, rents in Great Britain rose by an average of 11.7%.

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Mortgage interest costs for landlords rose by 40% in the year to August, to £15bn a year, according to Hamptons analysis of data from lobby group UK Finance and the Bank of England. The company said interest costs could hit £20bn a year within the next two years, as more and more landlords come to the end of their fixed-rate deals.

Aneisha Beveridge, Hamptons’s head of research, said: “Even if there are no further rate hikes by the Bank of England, we could see the amount of mortgage interest paid by landlords exceed £20bn over the next two years. This has the potential to eat up just over half the amount mortgaged landlords receive in rent.”

By Jasper Jolly

Source: The Guardian