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Housing market to see brief period of decline followed by prolonged period of recovery

A new report predicts a significant upturn in the housing market, pointing to a sustained period of recovery, stabilising interest rates and growing demand for housing.

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The report is by development finance lender Atelier and compiled by Nicole Lux, senior research fellow at London’s Bayes Business School.

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Following analysis of primary data sources, dating back to the start of the ONS house price statistics in 1969, the report examines the long-term historic trends and forecasts a medium-term outlook for the key factors driving the property market, including property values, inflation, interest rates, demand, supply, mortgage rates, unemployment and population growth.

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Source: Financial Reporter

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UK house prices fall unexpectedly for second month in a row

UK house prices have fallen unexpectedly in April for a second consecutive month, according to the building society Nationwide, as interest rate uncertainty and more expensive mortgages put a dampener on the traditional spring homebuying season.

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With some economists saying that two month-to-month falls in the closely watched index “start to look like a trend”, and new fixed mortgage rates continuing to creep up, the data will put further pressure on the Bank of England before next week’s interest rate announcement.

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The average house price in April was £261,962 – down by 0.4% on March, when the lender’s monthly index recorded a 0.2% month-on-month drop.

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Source: The Guardian

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Housing Market shows sign of improvement despite high rates

UK house prices fell by 0.2% in March. Nevertheless, the annual rate of house price growth edged higher to 1.6% in March, from 1.2% in February.

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The figures come from the Nationwide and the lender’s chief economist – Robert Gardner – says: “Activity has picked up from the weak levels prevailing towards the end of 2023 but remain relatively subdued by historic standards. For example, the number of mortgages approved for house purchase in January was around 15% below pre-pandemic levels.

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“This largely reflects the impact of higher interest rates on affordability. While mortgage rates are below the peaks seen in mid-2023, they remain well above the lows prevailing in the wake of the pandemic”

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Source: Introducer Today

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House Prices Rise for Second Month in a Row

After a surprising fall in house prices last month, economists have indicated that it was merely a temporary setback and expect prices to continue rising throughout the year.

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Despite a 0.2% decline in March, home values had previously risen in both January and February, showing an overall positive trend. House prices across the UK are currently 1.6% higher than they were a year ago, representing the strongest year-on-year growth since December 2022.

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According to Nationwide, the average price of a house in the UK is now £261,142, with economists predicting that prices will end the year significantly higher than they started. Although March saw a decline, economists believe it to be a “blip” and expect prices to resume their upward trajectory.

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Source: Business Matters

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House prices increased 1.5% in March

Increase exceeds historical trends for this time of year

Average house prices in March increased by 1.5% or £5,279 to reach £368,118, according to Rightmove’s latest house price index.

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This represents the largest monthly increase for 10 months, which Rightmove said signalled the continued recovery of the housing market after a muted 2023.

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This 1.5% increase surpasses the typical average rise observed in March, which historically stands at 1%. Year-on-year house prices have increased by 0.8%.

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Source: Housing Today

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Property industry reacts to UK house price data

Residential property prices increased by 0.4% in February, marking the fourth monthly increase in a row, according to the latest Halifax house price index.

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The data shows that during the month property prices grew 1.7% on an annual basis, against a 2.3% in the prior month.

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The figures showed the average cost of a home in the UK is now £1,000 higher than last month.

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Source: Property Industry Eye

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House prices remain remarkably stable

The UK economy has shown unexpected resilience in the face of rising interest rates and inflation. Agreed, the economy fell into a recession in the second half of last year, but so far, a very mild one.

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The high unemployment, financial stress and big company corporate failures that looked possible a couple of years ago have not materialised.

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The housing market has also held up, confounding expectations of sharply lower house prices.

The last time I wrote about house prices was in November 2022, in the aftermath of Kwasi Kwarteng’s ill-fated mini-budget. At that time I forecast a 15 per cent decline in house prices.

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Source: Reaction

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Why the ‘mood music’ surrounding the housing market outside London has changed

An influx of new residents into Manchester, Birmingham, Leeds, Bristol, Edinburgh and Glasgow helped the housing market remain resilient during 2023, according to a new report.

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New research from global property advisor JLL shows there was a surge in demand from renters and buyers for prime residential properties across the UK’s ‘big six’ despite high inflation and interest rates.

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The report, which tracks residential development activity, prices and rents across the six areas, highlighted a desire from city centre residents to live in ‘vibrant, highly-amenitised and well-connected central locations’.

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City A.M.

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House prices fall by -1.4% in December – ONS

Average house price annual inflation was negative 1.4% in the 12 months to December 2023, compared with negative 2.3% (revised estimate) in the 12 months to November 2023, according to the latest data from the Office for National Statistics (ONS).

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The average UK house price was recorded at £285,000, which is £4,000 lower than 12 months ago.

Average house prices in the 12 months to December 2023 decreased in England to £302,000 (negative 2.1%), decreased in Wales to £214,000 (negative 2.5%) and increased in Scotland to £190,000 (3.3%).

The average house price increased in the year to Q4 (October to December) 2023 to £178,000 in Northern Ireland (1.4%).

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On a non-seasonally adjusted basis, average UK house prices increased by 0.1% between November 2023 and December 2023, compared with a decrease of 0.8% during the same period 12 months ago.

Of English regions, annual house price inflation was highest in the North West, where prices increased by 1.2%.

London was the English region with the lowest annual inflation, where prices decreased by 4.8% in the 12 months to December 2023.

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Source: The Intermediary

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UK house prices rise at fastest rate since January 2023

UK house prices rose 2.5% in the year to January, recording the biggest increase since January last year, as lower mortgage rates and fading inflationary pressures led to increased buyer and seller confidence, Halifax has said.

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January marked the fourth consecutive monthly rise, with a 1.3% uplift on December, the UK’s biggest mortgage lender said, with the average home costing £291,000, £3,900 more than in December.

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Kim Kinnaird, the director at Halifax Mortgages, said: “The recent reduction of mortgage rates from lenders as competition picks up, alongside fading inflationary pressures and a still-resilient labour market has contributed to increased confidence among buyers and sellers.

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Source: The Guardian