Scotland's housing stock
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Value of Scotland’s housing stock hits a new high despite Brexit concerns

THE total value of Scotland’s housing stock reached £400.7 billion in 2018 registering one of the highest rises in the UK.

Despite a UK-wide slowdown in the housing market amid Brexit concerns, the total value of Scotland’s housing stock increased by £20.3 billion, real estate adviser Savills found.

That is a 5.1 per cent rise over the year, the fifth biggest gain of the 12 areas of the UK surveyed.

It comes as average house prices in Scotland have hit their highest ever level, despite the struggles facing the property market in England and Wales.

Last month, data from Your Move found that the average house price in Scotland was now £184,569 – up 1% up month-on-month and 5.5 per cent year-on-year.

This was the highest average ever, above the March 2015 peak set by a spike in prices immediately ahead of the introduction of the Land and Buildings Transaction Tax.

The total value of the housing stock across the UK reached a record £7.29 trillion in 2018, increasing by £190.3 billion, according to the analysis.

The gains came from outside London, as the total value of its residential housing stock recorded a £26.2 billion fall – the first decrease since 2009, Savills said.

London’s housing stock is still worth £1.77 trillion – more than four times the combined value of homes in Birmingham, Manchester, Edinburgh, Glasgow, Cardiff, Bristol, Liverpool, and Sheffield.

“Our analysis demonstrates the scale of the housing market and underlines the importance of housing to the economies of London and the UK as a whole, both as an asset class and store of private wealth,” said Lawrence Bowles, residential research analyst at Savills.

He continued: “As affordability becomes more stretched, younger households are having to put off buying their first home until later in life.”

The Bank of England governor, Mark Carney, said last month that in the event of a “disorderly” departure from the EU – not the central bank’s base-case scenario – house prices could slump by 30% as part of a broader economic shock.

And the Bank said the number of mortgages approved for house purchase fell to 63,728 in November, the lowest figure since April and down from 66,709 in October.

London still accounts for nearly a quarter (24.3%) of UK housing value, compared with a fifth a decade ago, according to Savills.

Some £137.7 billion of the increase in the value of housing stock last year was due to house prices going up – equating to a £4,800 price increase per home.

While 72% of the increase in the value of housing stock last year came from house price increases, the remaining 28% – or £52.6 billion was due to new homes being built.

Savills said this is the the highest proportion contributed by new housing development since 2011 and reflects the Government focus on building more new homes.

Within the £7.29 trillion total, the collective value of the private rented sector topped £1.5 trillion for the first time.

Across the UK, in percentage terms, Wales was the region showing the biggest gains in the value of housing stock in 2018, with a 6.3% increase adding £13.4 billion.

The East Midlands (6.2%) and West Midlands (6.1%) followed closely behind.

In cash terms, the value of stock in the South East saw the biggest increase across the UK last year, with £29.9 billion added on the back of growth of 2.2%.

Here is the total value of homes across the UK’s nations and regions in 2018, according to Savills, with the change in percentage and cash terms compared with 2017:

 London, £1.77 trillion, minus 1.5%, minus £26.2 billion – South East, £1.39 trillion, 2.2%, £29.9 billion – East of England, £810.5 billion, 3.0%, £23.5 billion – South West, £670.4 billion, 4.4%, £28.0 billion – North West, £529.3 billion, 5.1%, £25.5 billion – West Midlands, £468.2 billion, 6.1%, £26.9 billion – Scotland, £400.7 billion, 5.3%, £20.3 billion – East Midlands, £389.3 billion, 6.2%, £22.6 billion – Yorkshire and the Humber, £382.0 billion, 4.6%, £16.8 billion – Wales, £226.1 billion, 6.3%, £13.4 billion – North East, £152.7 billion, 2.7%, £4.0 billion – Northern Ireland, £100.7 billion, 6.0%, £5.7 billion

Source: Herald Scotland

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Scottish housing market bucks UK trend

Average house prices in Scotland have hit their highest ever level, despite the struggles facing the property market in England and Wales.

According to data from Your Move, the average house price in Scotland is now £184,569 – up 1 per cent month-on-month and 5.5 per cent year-on-year.

This is the highest average ever, above the March 2015 peak set by the spike in prices immediately ahead of the introduction of the Land and Buildings Transaction Tax.

Meanwhile, UK-wide house price growth has fallen to its lowest level in more than five years amid concerns about a no-deal Brexit and further interest rate increases.

Christine Campbell, Your Move managing director in Scotland, said: “Setting a new peak average price at a time when many parts of the UK are struggling to maintain prices is a significant show of strength from the Scottish market. Scotland continues to defy the pessimists.”

Your Move’s analysis said there were not particular circumstances which explained this rise, and attributed it instead to a gradual increase over the past three years.

The increase has also been broad-based, with Edinburgh reporting an increase of 10 per cent over the past year and Glasgow seeing prices go up by 9 per cent.

Meanwhile areas such as Angus saw prices go up by 11 per cent while Na h-Eileanan Siar saw house price rises of 12 per cent.

Alan Penman, business development manager for Walker Fraser Steele, one of Scotland’s oldest firms of chartered surveyors, said: “Despite any uncertainty surrounding Brexit, the Scottish market could hardly hope for a better position from which to face whatever challenges the next few months bring.”

Source: FT Adviser

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Scotland house prices see gradual pick up

The Scottish market is beginning to gradually pick up again, with annual house price growth rising from 3.5% in August to 5.1% in September and on the month, The Your Move House Price Index for Scotland has found.

Scotland’s performance is in stark contrast to England and Wales, where prices fell 0.1% in September and annual growth languishes well under inflation at 1.1%.

The changes bring the average Scottish house price to £184,030, up more than £7,000 since the start of the year and from £175,070 last September.

Christine Campbell, Your Move managing director in Scotland, said: “Whether it’s the Brexit deadline or not, there is relatively little stock coming onto market.

“Many potential sellers are deciding to sit tight and according to RICS, new instructions in Scotland are the lowest in the UK. This is unfortunately largely the reason behind creeping house prices, but it is also resulting in low transaction levels.

“On the properties that are being sold, these are at the very high end and largely focused in Edinburgh.”

Alan Penman, business development manager for Walker Fraser Steele, one of Scotland’s oldest firms of chartered surveyors and part of the LSL group of companies, said: “Scotland is testing the limits of whether a market can be strong while largely inactive. Homeowners are in no rush to put their properties onto the market, and we’re seeing a significant shortage of stock.”

Edinburgh and Glasgow account for about a quarter of all housing transactions in Scotland and, given Edinburgh’s position as the highest priced local authority in the country, an even greater contribution to average prices.

Both, as with Scotland overall, tend to perform more strongly in the summer months, and the fine weather this year has helped.

Nevertheless, in Edinburgh prices rose a massive 6.6% in September to £287,473, from £269,673 the month before, bringing the annual increase to 9.6%.

That number has been boosted in part by a relatively high number of high value sales, with six sales alone of properties worth more than £2m in August and September – compared to only four in Scotland in the whole of 2017.

Glasgow meanwhile has also grown well, up 3.3% in the month and matching Edinburgh’s annual growth.

The average price at the end of September of £166,094 is a new peak for the city – making it the only area other than Argyll and Bute (up 3.4% in the month and 12.0% annually) to set a new high-water mark.

The highest annual increase in the country however was for the second month in a row in Inverclyde.

It is among the cheaper areas in Scotland, with an average price of £138,074 though still somewhat above the cheapest area of West Dunbartonshire, where prices are £119,725, but properties in Kilmacolm can sell for almost double those elsewhere in the area.

That is helping push up prices overall. Other relatively cheap areas are also performing strongly, however.

Property in North Lanarkshire, where prices are on a par with Inverclyde, is up by double figures (10.3%), as are prices in Na h-Eileanan Siar, the second cheapest area in Scotland, despite a 10.4% annual rise.

At the top end of the market, meanwhile, East Dunbartonshire, the third most expensive area, and Midlothian, the fifth, are also showing strong, above average growth, with annual prices up 7.5% and 7.9% respectively.

In fact, overall there is strength across the market in Scotland, with annual prices up in 26 out of 32 local authorities.

Source: Mortgage Introducer

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Scottish housing market outlook remains positive despite UK dips

House prices have continued to rise in Scotland despite dips in other parts of the UK, according to a new survey.

The latest Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors (RICS) residential market survey for August found the market continues to be solid north of the border.

While the outlook in Scotland and Northern Ireland is positive, London, parts of wider South East England, and East Anglia were described as “downbeat”.

In Scotland, there was a net balance of 36% more surveyors reporting an increase in prices, with forecasts of positive momentum continuing in 2018.

Sales throughout Scotland were solid during the month, with a net balance of 7% more chartered surveyors reporting an increase.

The survey said figures suggest a further decline in properties for rent in Scotland in August while tenant demand continued to rise.

Simon Rubinsohn, Rics chief economist, said: “As the results highlight, in many parts of the country, including Scotland, the housing market remains quite firm.”

She added:“While a combination of a lack of stock and some level of uncertainty, both relating to the interest rate outlook and Brexit, has had an impact on activity, the overall picture in these areas is still encouraging.

“The story in London and the South East is, as has been widely recognised, rather more challenging but it is important that this is not seen as being indicative of the wider market.”

Source: The National

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More properties brought to market while selling prices stay strong in east central Scotland

This month has seen another increase in the number of properties brought to market in east central Scotland compared to last year, ESPC reports.

In August 2018, there was a five per cent increase annually, while in ESPC’s July and June House Price reports, this figure was 3.4 per cent and 3.2 per cent respectively.

Average selling prices rose by 3.4 per cent to £248,092 across east central Scotland, compared to the same period last year. The average selling price in Edinburgh rose by 4.5 per cent to £268,151. Within the capital, two-bedroom flats in Leith, the Shore and Granton saw the biggest increase in average selling prices, rising by 18.5 per cent to £202,173. Two-bedroom flats in Newington, Grange and Blackford also saw an increase of 18.1 per cent, rising to £306,566.

Properties in West Lothian also saw a significant increase in average selling prices, rising by 19.3 per cent to £233,325. This is less pronounced than the increase last month, when average selling prices in this area increased by 34.5 per cent compared to the same period last year. The average selling price was driven up due to a greater proportion of higher value homes sold recently.

The median time to sell across east central Scotland was one day slower than last year, with half of all properties going under offer within 18 days. In Edinburgh, the median time to sell was 16 days, which is one day slower than last year.

The number of properties sold in east central Scotland between June and August 2018 decreased by 5.7 per cent annually. This is due to fewer properties being brought to market in previous months and is not indicative of falling buyer demand.

Claire Flynn, PR and content executive at ESPC, said: “A further increase in the number of properties coming to market in east central Scotland is encouraging. This trend is positive news for buyers, as a shortage of properties has been limiting the local property market in recent years.

“Furthermore, average selling prices are still increasing steadily in comparison to last year, and we are continuing to see very short selling times across Edinburgh, the Lothians and Fife. Reports of house price drops and falling buyer demand in the wider UK market indicate that east central Scotland continues to buck UK housing market trends.”

Reflecting on Nationwide’s most recent House Price Index which reported price drops in the UK property market, Jenna Spence, operations director at Neilsons Solicitors and Estate Agents, said: “There is no such thing as the ‘UK property market’ – the UK is a patchwork of local markets each with its own dynamics and, unfortunately, much of the press commentary on the housing market focuses on what is happening in London and the south east of England.

“What matters most is what is happening in your local area if you are considering selling. In Edinburgh, sales prices have increased by 4.5 per cent on average due to huge buyer demand.

“We are definitely not seeing falling buyer demand by any means. It is very much the opposite in Edinburgh and the surrounding areas as evidenced by the speed at which properties are selling and the record selling prices achieved in many cases, if properties are accurately priced, professionally marketed and well-presented for the sale. Closing dates have become the norm in most cases and supply is simply not keeping up with buyer demand.”

Source: Scottish Legal

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Scottish house price growth slows to 4.4%

Annual Scottish house price growth fell to 4.4% in June after a 0.7% monthly fall, Your Move’s House Price Index has found.

The fall has been driven by a slowdown in Edinburgh, where prices fell by 1.0% month-on-month but are still 8.3% higher than a year ago.

The Shetland Islands have the highest annual house price growth (20.5%), followed by West Lothian (10.6%) and Inverclyde (10.4%).

Christine Campbell, Your Move managing director in Scotland, said: “The market in Scotland has noticeably slowed as we’ve gone into the summer yet it still shows some strong annual growth, and it’s encouraging to see almost all areas showing positive performance.”

Scotland’s house prices averaged at £182,163 in June, £7,759 more than a year ago.

Edinburgh has the highest house prices in Scotland, averaging at £273,897.

Alan Penman, business development manager for Walker Fraser Steele, one of Scotland’s oldest firms of chartered surveyors and part of the LSL group of companies, said: “Despite a slowdown, Edinburgh remains the foundation of the market in Scotland, showing a market with considerable resilience.”

Source: Mortgage Introducer

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Scottish pubs and care homes outperforming rest of property market

PUBS, care homes, students flats and hotels are outperforming traditional property sectors, according to a new report.

Research by leading property consultant CBRE reveals Scottish commercial property had another positive quarter at the start of the year, reflecting wider improvements reported for Scottish GDP.

The Scotland Property Quarterly report shows the performance across the three main sectors of office, retail and industrial property was average with very little change.

It was the “alternatives” sector – a mixture of smaller, specialist real estate types ranging from student accommodation and care homes to pubs, hotels, leisure and roadside services – that outperformed everything else in the first quarter with returns of 4.0%, and 13.2% over the 12 months to the end of March.

On an annual basis, most sectors in Scotland saw an improvement in returns. For all property, returns rose by around 25 basis points over the quarter to stand at 7% for the twelve months to the end of March. This contrasted with the UK, which saw annual returns dip lower over the same period.

Total returns for Scottish retail in the first quarter were 1.2%, a slight decrease on the 1.5% total return in Q4 of 2017. The annual total return for retail over the year to the end of March was 5.4%. Last year, capital values for retail in Scotland were, on average, flat.

Performance has edged lower this year due to weakening rental growth in the first three months of 2018.

However, these overall figures for retail are somewhat misleading given the diversity of local and sub-sector performance. This is evident in the data for capital growth in Scotland, with retail warehouses values virtually flat (-0.1% over Q1), compared to more robust growth for high street retail (0.9% growth over the quarter). Scotland saw the fastest capital growth for high street retail in the UK, outside of London.

Returns dropped back to 1.6% in this period, the same rate of return that was achieved in Q3 2017, and down from the 2.2% return in the final quarter of last year.

Rental growth remained in negative territory, but this is not typical of market conditions in the larger office markets of Glasgow and Edinburgh.

Industrial capital and rental values were virtually unchanged during the first quarter of 2018. As such, the sector had to rely solely on the income return of 1.5% in order to achieve a total return of 1.4%. Over the past twelve months, the sector remains the strongest performer of the three main sectors, with an annual total return of 8.1% during the year to the end of March.

Aileen Knox, senior director at CBRE Scotland, said: “The returns for alternative property have been very impressive so far this year with the sector now forming an increasing share of the real estate market.

“Around the start of the century, alternatives accounted for just 6% of the properties in the sample but now in 2018, it forms 19%.

“Our data also reflects the growing importance of alternatives as an asset class for investment purchases; as our analysis demonstrates, more money was invested into Scottish alternatives in 2017 and in Q1 2018 than went into the retail sector.”

Source: The National

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Scottish house price growth up 7.7% in March

Scottish annual house price growth has accelerated again, rising by 7.7% in March, compared to just 1.0% in England and Wales as a whole for the same month, Your Move Scotland House Price Index has found.

Wales, bolstered by high value sales as buyers rush to beat the new land transaction tax in April, also still trailed well behind, with annual growth of 4.8%.

Moreover, while prices fell between February and March in England and Wales, they continued to grow in Scotland, up 1.2%. That puts the average price at £184,850, up more than £13,000 in the last 12 months from £171,614 last March.

Christine Campbell, Your Move managing director in Scotland, said: “The Scottish market goes from strength to strength, with Edinburgh driving growth, but excellent performance found across the country. With property in Scotland still very affordable, it is possible this will continue, too.”

Alan Penman, business development manager for Walker Fraser Steele, Scottish chartered surveyors and part of the LSL group of companies, said: “We should welcome the growth we’re seeing in property prices in Scotland because it reflects a strong economy.

“We shouldn’t be blind to the fact that price increases reflect not just strong demand, but also a pronounced lack of supply in housing, however.”

The contrast in fortunes of the Scottish and English housing markets finds its starkest expression in the respective capitals.

While average prices in London were down 2.5% in the 12 months to the end of March, they were up 14.5% in Edinburgh and continue strong.

Edinburgh accounted for 45% of the £2,147 increase in Scotland’s average house price in March, on a weight-adjusted basis. In part, the strong performance in Edinburgh is down to strong sales of high value properties.

The number of transactions for £750,000 or over in the city in the first three months of the year – at 62 – is more than double last year (24).

Overall, 26 out of 32 local authorities in the country recorded growth in the last year with 10 setting new peak average prices in March.

They include several that, like Edinburgh, showed double digit growth for the last year.

Falkirk, which leads the way with annual price growth of 15.4%, was bolstered by rising prices of detached properties and new builds sold off plan. East Renfrewshire, the most expensive area outside Edinburgh and with prices growing almost as fast, was up 13.4% annually.

Midlothian (10.4%) and the Scottish Borders (12.0%), which also have above average prices; but also West Lothian (12.4%) and Fife (11.6%), where prices are below the average for Scotland as a whole, all saw double digit growth too.

Glasgow City (up 10.5%), Dumfries and Galloway (10.6%) and Renfrewshire (10.5%) are also all still recording strong annual growth.

John Tindale, senior housing analyst for Acadata, said: “The March housing market House prices in Scotland rose by 1.2% in March, down from the exceptional 2.2% in February, but still the third-highest rise in any single month of the last twelve.

“On a weight-adjusted basis, which takes into account both the increase in prices and the number of transactions involved, Edinburgh accounted for 45% of the £2,147 increase in Scotland’s March 2018 average house price.

“The second-largest contributor to the increase in Scotland’s average price in the month was East Lothian, where prices rose by 3.8%.

“Edinburgh and East Lothian combined accounted for 52% of the price increase seen in Scotland in the month, suggesting that the main focus of price growth in March was around the capital.”

Tindale added: “Over the last 12 months, the average house price in Scotland has increased by £13,236, or 7.7%, and now stands at £184,850. This is the highest annual rate since March 2008, if one ignores the period around the introduction of land and buildings transaction tax.

“Not only is Scotland currently seeing the highest growth rate in its house prices for ten years, but it also tops the league in terms of house price growth in the United Kingdom.

“Average house prices are currently climbing at an annual rate of 0.9% in England, 4.8% in Wales and 4.3% in Northern Ireland.”

Source: Mortgage Introducer

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Edinburgh fuels rise in house prices as effect of new tax fades

HOUSE prices in Scotland are outstripping the rest of the UK with the surge being driven by a boom in the value of property in Edinburgh.

New analysis of the housing market has found that the average cost of a home jumped by almost 8 per cent north of the border compared to just 1 per cent down south.

The burgeoning property market means that the average house price is now £184,850, an increase of more than £13,000 in the last 12 months from £171,614 last March.

House price growth is now at its highest level since March 2008 and the start of the economic downturn.

The data has been revealed by the latest Your Move/Acadata House Price Index, and shows that the housing market has now recovered to a level last seen before the introduction of the Scottish Government’s Land and Buildings Transaction Tax (LBTT), which replaced stamp duty.

Christine Campbell, Your Move managing director in Scotland, said: “The Scottish market goes from strength to strength, with Edinburgh driving growth, but excellent performance found across the country.

“With property in Scotland still very affordable, it is possible this will continue, too.”

House prices in Edinburgh saw a double-digit surge during the past 12 months, rising 14.5 per cent to an average of £288,039 at the end of March.

This is in contrast to London, where prices fell slightly by 2.5 per cent during the same time.

At the top of the market, 62 properties priced at £750,000 or over changed hand in Edinburgh during the first three months of the year, more than double the number last year (24).

John Tindale, senior housing analyst for Acadata said that wealthy house-buyers were returning to the capital after being scared off by the impact of LBTT, which increased the amount due on properties at the higher end of the price scale.

He said: “A recent Royal Mail survey concluded that “Edinburgh is the UK’s most attractive city to live and work in”. The high level of LBTT payable on properties priced in excess of £750k no longer appears to be a strong deterrent to potential purchasers in the Edinburgh area, with the sale of such properties very much on the increase.

“It will be interesting to see if this positivity in the upper echelons of the Edinburgh market is going to have a ripple effect outward to the remainder of Scotland’s housing sector over the next few months.”

Overall, 26 out of 32 local authorities in the country recorded growth in the last year with 10 setting new peak average prices in March.

They include several which saw double digit growth similar to that found in Edinburgh, including Falkirk, which leads the way with annual price growth of 15.4 per cent, and East Renfrewshire, the most expensive area outside Edinburgh where prices grew almost as fast at 13.4 per cent.

Midlothian (10.4 per cent) and the Scottish Borders (12.0 per cent), also saw above average prices as did West Lothian (12.4 per cent) and Fife (11.6 per cent).

House prices increased in Glasgow by 10.5 per cent, while strong growth was also observed in Dumfries and Galloway (10.6 per cent) and Renfrewshire (10.5 per cent).

Acadata said that the strength in the market is a combination of factors that include low interest rates and strong competition among mortgage providers; high employment rates and average weekly earnings that are the third highest of the 12 regions in the UK;

Despite the record increase, house prices in Scotland are still the second-lowest in the UK, meaning that property is more readily affordable north of the border than elsewhere.

Alan Penman, business development manager for Walker Fraser Steele, one of Scotland’s oldest firms of chartered surveyors and part of the LSL group of companies, said: “We should welcome the growth we’re seeing in property prices in Scotland because it reflects a strong economy.

“We shouldn’t be blind to the fact that price increases reflect not just strong demand, but also a pronounced lack of supply in housing, however.”

Source: Herald Scotland

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Scottish house-price increase beats rest of UK

SCOTLAND is experiencing a “mini housing boom” with prices rocketing by more than seven per cent in February – six times the rate for England and Wales and almost double the next fastest part of the UK, according to figures from estate agency Your Move.

Some of the growth was due to fewer transactions, a typical February trait, along with a relatively small number of high-value sales in the Morningside area of Edinburgh.

These pushed the city’s monthly rate to 7.3 per cent – more than half of the monthly increase in Scotland.

Nevertheless, Your Move’s housing price index indicated that the market remains strong with a large majority of local authorities seeing growth in the last year.

While prices in England and Wales rose just 0.1 per cent month-on-month in February, in Scotland they were up 2.3 per cent.

Overall, the average price in Scotland is up more than £12,000 a year, leaving the average property worth £182,936.

“Scotland continues to enjoy unexpectedly strong housing growth – with prices rising at their fastest rate in a decade,” said Your Move’s managing director in Scotland, Christine Campbell. “Both high-priced property and the major cities are fuelling a mini housing boom.”

Alan Penman, business development manager for Walker Fraser Steele, one of Scotland’s oldest firms of chartered surveyors and part of the LSL group of companies, added: “Scotland’s market grows ever stronger as the rest of the UK weakens.

“But, while price growth might be returning to the levels of the last housing boom, transactions remain well down.

“The attractiveness of Scotland’s centres such as Edinburgh is matched only by the tightness of property supply there.”

Monthly house price growth in Scotland is now running at its fastest since 2004, with the exception of the month before the introduction of the Land and Buildings Transaction Tax (LBTT) in 2015.

Annual house price growth is now at its fastest since April 2008, which signalled the end of the last housing boom.

Growth in February was boosted by the sale of eight new properties in the Morningside EH10 area of Edinburgh for an average £1.15 million each.

Even without these, price growth for February in Scotland would be two per cent, but growth is heavily dependent on Scotland’s two big cities.

Edinburgh accounts for 28 per cent of the increase in prices over the year, and Glasgow a further 14 per cent.

Your Move said there was still strength across the market, with almost a third of local authorities in Scotland setting a new peak price in February.

That included high-priced homes in East Renfrewshire – which was second only to Edinburgh – with monthly growth of 7.1 per cent, and East Dunbartonshire, which rose by a more modest 1.8 per cent.

However, the market strength also included mid-priced areas like Angus (up 5.2 per cent in the month), Falkirk (2.9 per cent) and, cheaper still, North Lanarkshire (2.5 per cent), where average prices at £131,293 are well below the national average.

Only four areas across Scotland have seen no rise in the last year: Stirling (down 3.2 per cent), East Ayrshire (down 1.9 per cent), Aberdeen City (down 1.2 per cent) and South Ayrshire (down 0.6 per cent).

Source: The National