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Prime lettings market in London seeing highest demand or five years

The lettings market in London’s prime property market is improving, with the number of tenancies agreed rising at its highest level for more than five years, new research shows.

Overall tenancies agreed were up by 34% in the 12 months to August 2019, according to the figures from real estate firm Knight Frank and demand has been particularly strong in lower price brackets, with average rental values between £250 and £500 per week up by 3% in the year to September.

While demand is also strong in the super prime £5,000 plus per week market, average annual rental values between £1,000 and £5,000 per week are declining, and Knight Frank’s report says that this reflects more subdued demand among senior corporate tenants.

The data also shows that month on month rents in the prime central London lettings market have increased by 0.1%, quarter on quarter they were up by 0.5% and they are now just 0.1% down from September 2018.

In the prime outer London residential market rents are down by 0.1% on a monthly and an annual basis but quarter on quarter they increased by 0.3%.

The report says a decline in the level of new lettings listings in the prime central London market has moderated as more property owners respond to current levels of political uncertainty by letting rather than selling.

‘The impact has put downwards pressure on rental values, however the strength of demand has kept the average annual change broadly flat over the last 12 months. Record low interest rates have helped to underpin market liquidity and mean that a growing number of buyers are fixing for longer periods of time,’ the report says.

‘Some 96% of all mortgages issued in July were fixed rate, with the percentage of five year fixed rate mortgages climbing to 47%, which compared to 27% in the same month two years ago,’ it adds.

Source: Property Wire

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UK still an attractive place to invest despite Brexit uncertainty, report finds

The UK has retained its position as one of the world’s leading hubs for business, according to a new report which suggest investors have taken a ‘wait-and-see’ approach towards Brexit.

In a comprehensive global index released this morning, the UK was ranked as one of the best global hubs for business, scoring highly for its low start-up costs and attractiveness for foreign investment.

Business advisory group Eight Advisory, which produced the report, suggested the long-term cost of Brexit has yet to emerge across a wide range of economic and wellbeing indicators.

“While Brexit creates considerable uncertainty the foundations of the UK’s economy are particularly strong, and it remains an attractive place to invest and do business,” said Alexis Karklins-Marchay, a partner at Eight Advisory and prominent figure within the French business community.

He told City A.M.: “Confidence has plummeted in the last 3 years, but Britain should have confidence in its own ability. This is one of the most competitive countries.”

Despite scoring highly in areas such as human freedom, higher education and happiness levels, the UK’s productivity was found to be “an ongoing and long-running concern”.

Eight Advisory also said that Brexit was proving a “distraction from the issues facing the UK economy”, such as productivity and standards of primary education.

The report comes weeks after consultancy Z/Yen showed that London has clung onto its second place in a ranking of the world’s top financial centres, but its position in the top tier is under threat amid Brexit chaos and other geopolitical shifts.

“There are fundamental issues that need to be addressed if the UK’s hard-earned reputation as an international leader is to be protected in the long term,” Karklins-Marchay added.

By Sebastian McCarthy

Source: City AM

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Moving costs reach record highs, led by rise in stamp duty

The average cost of buying and selling home in the UK has reached a record high at £10,414 or £24,585 in London, new research has found, a rise of 2% year on year.

It is higher stamp duty payments, up 4%, and larger conveyancing fees, up 5%, that are driving the cost of moving home, according to the annual study from ReallyMoving.

The research also shows that the costs for first time buyers have also risen, up by 2% year on year to £1,613.

Stamp duty now makes up some 44% of the total cost of a home move, rising to 65% in London. Those buying and selling, now pay on average £4,625 in stamp duty, based on the median property value, while conveyancing costs stand at £1,490.

Although varying significantly depending on the distance of the move and the volume of possessions transported, removals charges have also increased by 1% over the last year to £480 on average.

The cost of an Energy Performance Certificate (EPC) remains unchanged at £55, but other expenses have dipped slightly over the last year, such as a Homebuyers Report which now costs £408, a fall of 4%, and estate agent fees at £3,356 are down 1% as suppliers compete for business in a contracted market that has seen transaction levels fall 12.4% year on year.

Movers in London face the greatest cost of moving, with the upfront costs associated with buying and selling a home in the capital now at £24,585, almost 2.5 times the UK average.

With property prices in London following a downward trajectory in 2019, home owners are finding it harder to fund a move through growth in equity, therefore the high cost of moving is becoming increasingly prohibitive, the report says.

The South East, East and South West are among the most expensive regions for movers, with the East and West Midlands sitting in the centre of the table and Northern Ireland and the North East the least expensive locations as a result of lower house prices, enabling greater fluidity in the housing market.

Moving costs for first time buyers across the UK are considerably lower at an average of £1,613, due to the exemption of stamp duty for first time buyers on properties up the value of £300,000.

A 2% annual increase in overall costs has been driven mainly by marginal rises in removals and conveyancing fees. Yet higher house prices in London mean that first time buyers in the capital are typically paying £3,750 in stamp duty, bringing their overall costs to £5,684, some 3.5 times the UK average.

‘Home owners are having to dig deeper than ever before to fund a home move, with upfront costs reaching another record high in 2019,’ said Rob Houghton, chief executive officer of ReallyMoving.

‘Stamp duty charges may be fixed, but it is possible to make savings on other costs such as conveyancing, surveys and removals by shopping around online for the best deals and comparing ratings and reviews, as well as price,’ he added.

Source: Property Wire

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Number of new builds registered in England and Wales up almost 8%

There was a 7.9% increase in new builds submitted with the Land Registry for registration in England and Wales in August this year compared to the same month in 2018, official data shows.

Of the 93,574 sales received for registration in August 2019 some 72,806 were freehold, a 4.5% decrease on August 2018, and 12,411 were newly built, a 7.9% increase on August 2018.

The number of detached properties registered reached 22,213, up from the 21,968 recorded in July and 18,523 in June. Semi-detached were the most popular with 25,283 registered in August, up from 24,848 in July and 21,623 in June.

But terraced homes were equally popular with 25,244 registered in August, up from 25,115 registered in July, but this was down on the 21,721 registered in June, the data also shows.

There were 15,565 flats and maisonettes registered in August, down from the 15,915 registered in July but up from the 14,393 registered in June.

The most expensive residential property sold in August was in the City of Westminster for £16.5 million while the cheapest residential property sold in August was in Sunderland for £18,500.

The most expensive commercial sale taking place in August 2019 was in Southwark for £129.3 million and the cheapest commercial sale was in St. Helens for £105.

There were 743 residential properties in England and Wales for £1 million and over registered, of which 410 were in Greater London, five in the West Midlands, six in Greater Manchester and one in Wales.

Source: Property Wire

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House price growth turns negative over the month – but just remains positive year-to-year

House price growth –just – crept into reverse last month. However, annual house price inflation – just – remained in positive territory.

According to Nationwide the average house price was £216,352, down just 0.2% from an average of £216,096 in August.

Annual house price inflation was up by the same amount, 0.2%.

September was the tenth month in a row where Nationwide has recorded annual house price growth of under 1%.

London was the weakest performing region in the third quarter of this year, Nationwide also reported, with prices down 1.7% compared with the same period a year ago.

The lender said that UK house prices are now “only” around 17% higher than their 2007 peak.

Mike Scott, of Yopa, said: “It now seems likely that year-on-year house price growth will dip into negative territory in the last quarter of this year as the Brxit uncertainty continues to subdue market activity.”

Separately, the latest Bank of England lending figures show that in August there were 65,000 mortgage approvals for house purchase, down from the 18-month high of 67,000 in July.

By ROSALIND RENSHAW

Source: Property Industry Eye

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House Price Growth at a Standstill

Annual house price growth in fell to 0.2% in September, the tenth month in a row that growth has been below 1%.

The latest house price index from Nationwide revealed that month-on-month, house prices fell in September by 0.2%. Compared to September 2018, average house prices have grown by just 0.2%, down from the 0.6% annual growth seen in August. This is the lowest yearly growth recorded for eight months, and only slightly higher than the six-year low of 0.1% seen in January. The average price of a home in the UK now stands at £215,352, down from £216,096 in August.

“Indicators of UK economic activity have been fairly volatile in recent quarters, but the underlying pace of growth appears to have slowed as a result of weaker global growth and an intensification of Brexit uncertainty,” said Robert Gardner, chief economist at Nationwide. “However, the slowdown has centred on business investment – household spending has been more resilient, supported by steady gains in employment and real earnings.

“The underlying pace of housing market activity has remained broadly stable, with the number of mortgages approved for house purchase continuing within the fairly narrow range prevailing over the past two years. Healthy labour market conditions and low borrowing costs appear to be offsetting the drag from the uncertain economic outlook.”

Regionally, the biggest fall in prices last month was seen in London and the South East, where average prices dropped annually by 1.7%. In other parts of the country, house prices are still rising but slowly. The most significant gains were seen in Northern Ireland, where house prices grew 3.4% year-on-year in September.

“With the economy largely struggling and the outlook highly uncertain, we suspect that house prices will remain soft in the near term at least,” said Howard Archer, chief economic adviser to the EY Item Club.

“Should the UK leave the EU with a deal at the end of October – or early in 2020 – we believe reduced uncertainty and gradually improving economic activity as the year progresses could see house prices rise by around 2% over 2020.

“Housing market activity – and possible to a lesser extent prices – could be given a lift in 2020 if the government cuts stamp duty significantly in the budget later this year.”

Jeremy Leaf, former residential chairman of RICS, said: “What these figures tell us is that there hasn’t been much change in the market. On the ground, we have seen more serious buyers and sellers determined to find some middle ground and particularly for longer-term purchases such as larger flats and family houses where short-term uncertainties seem to be less relevant.”

Source: Money Expert

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Top spots for buy to let named

Scotland has been crowned the best place for landlords to invest as research has shown the average yield for Scottish buy-to-let properties scoops the rest of the UK.

The findings from lettings platform Howsy, published today (October 2), showed Glasgow City was the overall best place to invest in buy-to-let property with a current rental yield of 7.5 per cent.

Midlothian and East Ayrshire, both in Scotland, were close behind with rental yields of 6.8 per cent, while Scottish county West Dunbartonshire was fourth at 6.7 per cent.

“After years of being slammed by regulatory changes making it harder to turn a profit, choosing where to invest has never been more important for landlords.”
Chris Sykes, broker at Private Finance
The research showed Burnley and Belfast were offering yields of 6.5 per cent, while Inverclyde offered 6.4 per cent, followed by Falkirk (6.3 per cent), the Western Isles (6.2 per cent) and Clackmannanshire (6.1 per cent) to complete the top 10.

Wales fared worst among the home countries with an average yield of 3.7 per cent compared with Scotland’s 5.7 per cent.

Landlords in England and Northern Ireland receive average yields of 4.1 per cent and 5.4 per cent respectively.

Chris Sykes, broker at Private Finance, said: “After years of being slammed by regulatory changes making it harder to turn a profit, choosing where to invest has never been more important for landlords.

“Generally speaking, properties further north tend to require a smaller initial investment. Glasgow, which tops Howsy’s list, has an average house price of just £135,121.

“Being a major city and university town, the area also benefits from strong rental demand so this combination of low property prices and decent regular rental income is a winning formula for investors.”

The buy-to-let market grew rapidly after the financial crisis but has since taken a beating as a number of tax and regulatory changes have hit landlords’ pockets.

How the rules changed:
An additional 3 per cent stamp duty surcharge, introduced in April 2016, was closely followed by the abolition of mortgage interest tax relief for landlords.

Landlords then took a further hit when a shake up of rules by the Prudential Regulation Authority meant buy-to-let borrowers were now subject to more stringent affordability testing.

The changes to mortgage relief have been phased into the system since April 2017, but by April 2020 landlords will be unable to deduct any of their mortgage expenses from taxable rental income.

Instead, they will receive a tax-credit based on 20 per cent (the current basic tax rate) of their mortgage interest payments.

Following the changes, landlords who were higher or additional-rate taxpayers would now only get refunds at the 20 per cent rate, rather than top rate of paid tax.

On top of this, landlords could also be forced into a higher tax bracket because they would need to declare the income that was used to pay the mortgage on their tax return.

Mr Sykes said mortgage repayments often represented a large chunk of landlords’ costs, so getting as low a rate as possible was important to achieve a profitable rental yield.

He said lenders were currently offering very competitive buy-to-let product rates, both as a result of the wider low-rate environment and in a bid to attract more business given the slowdown the sector has experienced in recent years so now was the right time for landlords to remortgage onto a “rock-bottom rate” to maximise their overall profits.

Founder and chief executive of Howsy, Calum Brannan, said technology had helped landlords connect with their tenants more easily which meant they were no longer restricted to investing within the local vicinity to keep tabs on their property or forced to pay large fees for an agent to do so.

He said: “This leaves them free to buy in one section of the market and invest in another to maximise their financial gain across the board.

“More accessibility via digital rental platforms now provides landlords with greater empowerment when managing their property portfolio and they can do so anytime, day or night, with greater peace of mind.”

The research also showed which locations offered the highest annual house price growth for those looking to buy.

North Devon topped the list with expected growth of 15 per cent, while Welsh locations Merthyr Tydfil and Blaenau Gwent came in second and third place.

England had the lowest annual house price growth of the home countries at 0.3 per cent, while Wales stormed ahead with 4.2 per cent.

Location:Annual House Price Growth:
North Devon15%
Merthyr Tydfil13%
Blaenau Gwent13%
Caerphilly11%
Camden10%
West Devon9%
Forest Heath9%
Rochdale9%
Monmouthshire9%
Trafford8%
Home countries: 
England0.3%
Wales4.2%
Scotland1.4%
Northern Ireland1.6%
United Kingdom0.7%

By Imogen Tew

Source: FT Adviser

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Rates will rise in Brexit deal scenario

Homeowners should be ready for the Bank of England to increase interest rates in the face of a deal being struck on Brexit, economist Andrew Sentance has warned.

Speaking to podcast the LM Experience Sentance said there “aren’t enough hawks on the MPC who are trying to think about things from a different perspective.”

He was an external member of the Monetary Policy Committee of the Bank of England from October 2006 to May 2011

Sentance said: “I hope that if we get a deal it will remove the uncertainty around Brexit and create space for Bank of England to raise interest rates – not in a dramatic way.”

MPC warns of Brexit rate cut
Sentance said: “I hope that if we get a deal it will remove the uncertainty around Brexit and create space for Bank of England to raise interest rates – not in a dramatic way.”

However should there be a no deal scenario Sentance believes rates will stay the same.

He said: “I find it very hard to believe that the Bank would really jack up interest rates if the no deal predictions turn out to be correct.

“I think the difference in scenarios between deal and no deal is that there is space for rates to increase. That is not the case in a no deal scenario.”

However he added: “It does seem if there is ever an argument for keeping rates low it holds sway with the MPC.”

And earlier this week Bank of England (BoE) policymaker Michael Saunders has said the Bank of England is considering cutting interest rates, even if the UK avoids a no-deal Brexit.

Rates have stood at 0.75% since August 2018.

By Ryan Fowler

Source: Mortgage Introducer

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UK Construction Industry in Sharp Slump

UK construction firms saw another tough month in September, according to the latest IHS Markit Construction PMI, which fell to its lowest level since April 2009 on Wednesday after activity fell at its second fastest pace for a decade last month and suggests the sector is in danger of another brush with recession.

The IHS Markit Construction PMI came in at 43.3 for September, down from 45.0 previously and when markets had been looking for no change. This marked the third consecutive decline for the index, which has zig-zagged lower ever since topping out at 55.8 in July 2018. It comes after commercial, civil engineering and residential construction firms all suffered in September.

Commercial firms were again the weakest link, with many suffering due to client hesitancy, which is said to be the result of the Brexit process. Civil engineering activity was reported sharply lower while housebuilders, long the star of the UK construction show given the home supply and demand disparity, saw their fourth consecutive decrease in building. Input costs rose due to higher charges for fuel and some raw materials while employment across the sector fell at its fastest pace since the end of 2010.

“Falling demand from investors and brutal, margin-slashing competition among contractors have sent confidence skittling. Many contractors are now fighting on two fronts, and are being squeezed by rising input costs just as new orders fall sharply,” says Gareth Belsham, director of national property consultancy and surveyors Naismiths. “Britain’s construction sector has become adept at riding out both feast and famine. But even by its volatile standards, the rapid slowdown in demand is causing concern.”

PMI surveys measure changes in industry activity by asking respondents to rate conditions for new orders, production, hiring intentions, prices and inventories. A number above 50.0 indicates industry expansion while a number below 50 is suggestive of contraction. The survey results often correlate with official measures of output, although they can often be wide of the mark too.

The UK construction industry has struggled since the June 2016 Brexit referendum, which has hit the commercial construction sector particularly hard, leading the industry to fall into recession in 2017. Output contracted for three consecutive quarters that year before seeing only a tepid and short-lived recovery in 2018, which has since unwound as the Brexit saga rolls. But the under-the-cosh industry is also now having to cope with the impact that an uncertain global economic backdrop is having on clients.

“The downturn in the construction sector is continuing to worsen, with the risk of a no-deal Brexit largely to blame. The PMI is consistent with construction output falling by about 2.0% in Q3, building on Q2’s 1.2% decline,” says Samuel Tombs, chief UK economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics. “The construction sector could revive quickly if the risk of a no-deal Brexit subsides; in aggregate, the corporate sector has ample cash reserves.”

Tombs, who’s been rated one of the UK’s top forecasters by Bloomberg and Reuters, says the housing market could soon experience a revival because of a decline in the cost of borrowing, which is now feeding through into lower mortgage rates. However, his forecasts suggest the overall construction sector has now seen two consecutive quarters of decline, which is enough to return it to recession at a time when the broader economy is also weak.

UK GDP growth was 0.3% in July, up from 0% previously and marking a strong start to the third quarter for an economy that shrank by 0.2% in the three months to the end of June. The earlier result had seen economists fret about the prospect of a technical recession, which is defined as two consecutive quarters of contraction, although the probability of that happening is now tipped as low.

“We’re revising down our forecast for quarteron-quarter GDP growth in Q3 to 0.3%, from 0.4%, in response to signs that the rebound in industrial production is shaping up to be smaller than we had anticipated. Nonetheless, our forecast still exceeds the MPC’s 0.2% expectation and likely would be sufficiently strong to persuade the Committee that lower interest rates are not warranted,” Tombs wrote, in a recent note to clients.

The UK economy has slowed in recent years amid elevated inflation that’s at times crimped consumer purchasing power, slowing business investment and more recently, a global economic slowdown that’s put the German economy on the door of recession and left the Eurozone at risk of stagnation. Amid that latter slowdown, central banks the world over have rushed to support their economies with lower interest rates and other assistance measures, although the Bank of England (BoE) is yet to follow suit.

Written by James Skinner

Source: Pound Sterling Live

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Only 37% of BTL products available directly from lenders

Research from Paragon Bank shows that 57% of landlords are most likely to source their next buy-to-let mortgage from their existing broker, while 41% state they would be most likely to go direct to a lender for a buy-to-let mortgage. According to Moneyfacts.co.uk, currently 37% of buy-to-let mortgage products are available directly.

The research from Paragon Bank also revealed that there is little variance in the attitude towards retaining their current mortgage broker between portfolio and non-portfolio landlords, with 59% and 50% respectively saying they are most likely to remain with their current broker. (A portfolio landlord has four or more properties).

Landlords pausing on increasing their portfolios

Only 8% of landlords expect to purchase property in the next quarter, almost reaching the historic low of 6% in quarter four 2018. While those selling properties decreased by only one percentage point from 23% to 22%. In quarter three in 2014, the gap between landlords expecting to sell and those expecting to buy was equal, whereas the current gap now sits at 15%.

An area where portfolio and non-portfolio landlords differ is on the expectation of purchasing a property in the next quarter. Only 1% of non-portfolio landlords expect to purchase, while 10% of portfolio landlords expect to buy.

John Heron, director of mortgages at Paragon, said: “With so much change in the private rented sector (PRS) in recent years, landlords have had to adapt quickly to higher taxation, which has impacted returns on their portfolios. Throughout that time, landlords will have relied more heavily than ever on intermediaries to help them get the very best deals available. Therefore, it is no surprise that, while the future remains unpredictable, landlords are maintaining some stability by reusing the same brokers for their next mortgage.

“It’s surprising, however, to hear that some landlords are considering approaching a lender directly for their next mortgage. This does not match well with the actual behaviour of landlords, particularly in the portfolio segment where nine out of 10 landlords use an intermediary.”

Paragon Bank’s PRS Trends Report for quarter three 2019 was conducted with over 200 buy-to-let landlords, of which the large majority have been renting for over 10 years and are classed as professional landlords with three or more properties.

Source: Property118