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BoE’s Haldane: ‘Deeply arrogant’ to assume markets wrong on rates

Policymakers would be “deeply arrogant” to assume financial markets or other forecasters are definitely wrong about the outlook for interest rates or the broader economy, Bank of England chief economist Andy Haldane said on Tuesday.

Last week BoE Governor Mark Carney said investors were underestimating how much interest rates could rise, even as the British central bank kept borrowing costs on hold due to Brexit uncertainty.

Haldane said in a question and answer session after a lecture at the University of Sheffield that due to unusually high economic uncertainty related to Brexit, it was reasonable for others to take a different view on the outlook to the bank.

“I think such is the uncertainty right now – for all sorts of reasons, all sorts of obvious reasons about the future course of the economy, it’s not in anyone’s interests to say the markets are wrong and we are right. That would be deeply arrogant,” he said.

“It’s implausible that anyone has a crystal ball on how the economy will evolve. Last week we gave the Bank of England’s view on the economy, having made some assumptions about, for example, how Brexit might play out. Time will tell whether that view comes to pass,” Haldane added.

Reporting by David Milliken, editing by James Davey

Source: UK Reuters

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‘Zombie firms’ dragging down UK economy – KPMG

At least 8% of UK companies are displaying ‘zombie-like symptoms’ and are dragging down the country’s economy said the latest report of KPMG.

A zombie company is one has has a static or falling turnover, profitability is persistently low, margins are squeezed, cash and working capital reserves are limited, leverage levels are high, and has limited access to investment in the future.

One in seven UK companies would have collapsed were it not for low interest rates, as they are under sustained financial strain said the report that looked at 21,000 businesses. Possibly as many as 14% of the country’s companies are displaying these ‘zombie-like symptoms’.

These companies threaten to exacerbate a future downturn, said the new analysis KPMG and warned that “the rise of zombie firms in the UK could spell trouble ahead”.

The highest concentration of zombie firms was in the energy sector, where 23 per cent were under sustained financial strain, the automotive sector (17%), and in utilities (15%).

Yael Selfin, chief economist at KPMG in the UK, said: “The threat that zombie companies pose to the wider economy is very real.”

“If interest rates rise further, highly-leveraged businesses may soon find that borrowing will become more difficult to repay, and if the economy continues to stutter, these businesses will be left especially vulnerable to adverse market forces,” she said.

Blair Nimmo, head of restructuring at KPMG’s UK operation, said: “Urgent dialogue is required between regulators, banks and businesses in order to minimise the ongoing drag that these companies have on the economy.”

By Caoimhe Toman

Source: ShareCast

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Sterling slides to day’s low on Brexit nerves, pressure on PM May

Sterling slid nearly half a percent on Monday on rising concerns about the progress of Brexit negotiations and worries Prime Minister Theresa May is facing a mounting challenge to her leadership.

May is set to meet Graham Brady, chairman of an influential committee representing members of parliament from her Conservative party, amid calls for her to set a date to step down, the BBC reported.

“Currently Theresa May is walking on thin ice as the latest reports indicate a revolt against her could take place. MPs (Members of parliament) are probably not satisfied with cross-party talks so far. Therefore the pound is being dragged down as another dose of uncertainty hits the market,” said Marc-André Fongern of MAF Global Forex.

The British currency was generally weak across the board, reserving some of its biggest losses against the dollar and the low yielding Japanese yen.

Against the dollar, the pound slipped as much as 0.5 percent to $1.3040 before recovering slightly to trade 0.4 percent down at $1.3051.

It also weakened a quarter of a percent against the euro at 85.69 pence and 0.7 percent against the yen at 144.21 yen.

A dollar rising at the start of the U.S. trading session also hit the pound.

“There is broad dollar strength across the board but it is being felt more acutely through sterling,” said Kamal Sharma, a director of G10 FX strategy at Bank of America Merrill Lynch.

Britain’s Conservative government and the opposition Labour Party resumed Brexit talks to try to find a way to break the deadlock in parliament over the country’s departure from the European Union.

May agreed a withdrawal deal with the EU last year, but it was rejected three times by a deeply divided British parliament. That delayed the exit date, a postponement that has weighed on the pound as investors fret about prolonged political uncertainty.

Sterling has traded in a narrow range of $1.28-$1.31 since Britain pushed its scheduled departure from the European Union back from March until Oct. 31. There is still little clarity about when, how, or even if, Brexit will happen.

Investors have been broadly impervious to tepid economic data recently and even relatively hawkish comments from the Bank of England last week failed to jolt the currency.

Overall volatility in the currency markets remained near five-year lows and net positions by hedge funds in sterling have slipped back into negative territory.

For a graphic on Sterling/dollar three-month implied volatility, see – tmsnrt.rs/2DLBsWn

Reporting by Tom Finn; Additional reporting by Saikat Chatterjee and Thyagaraju Adinarayan; Editing by Janet Lawrence and Peter Graff

Source: UK Reuters

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Borrowing for home improvements on the rise

The average home improvement loan has increased by 16% in 2019, with households in the South East borrowing more for home improvements than any other region in the first quarter of this year, whilst the East Midlands saw biggest spike in home improvement loans.

According to new data from Shawbrook Bank, the South East is the UK’s ‘DIY capital’, with households borrowing more for home improvements than anywhere else in the country during the first three months of 2019 and across the whole of 2018.

As much as 17% of Shawbrook Bank’s lending for home improvements went to borrowers in the South East in the three months to March, although this is down on the share for the whole of 2018 (21%). This is despite official figures reporting that house prices in the region increased by just 0.1% in the past year, with only London and the east of England experiencing lower growth.

Meanwhile, the East Midlands has seen the biggest spike in the first three months of the year compared to 2018, with the share of Shawbrook’s total lending for home improvement loans reaching 12% in Q1 2019.

Notably, the East Midlands has also seen the largest increase in house prices of any English region over the past 12 months.

The most recent official figures from the Office of National Statistics show house prices in the region increased by 4.4% in the 12 months to January 2019.

Shawbrook Bank managing director Paul Went said households “are clearly looking to maximise the value of their home by carrying out home improvements”, regardless of whether house prices in their region are flat or increasing.

Analysis of Shawbrook’s loan data shows the average size of a home improvement loan has increased by 16% when comparing the first quarter of 2019 with the same period for 2018.

The increase in the amount of money Shawbrook’s Personal Loan customers are borrowing to renovate their homes could be due to changes in the value of the pound. Since the EU referendum in 2016 the value of sterling has fallen and therefore the cost of imported goods and raw materials has risen.

Although the cost of home improvements may be on the rise if construction firms are forced to pass on price increases to their clients, there is still value to be made from renovations that are well-planned.

Figure 1: Share of all home improvement lending by Shawbrook Bank

Top 10 UK regions Q1 2019 2018 (12 months)
South East 17% 21%
London 15% 15%
North West 13% 12%
East Midlands 12% 7%
Scotland 10% 9%
Yorkshire & Humber 9% 9%
West Midlands 7% 8%
North East 7% 4%
East Anglia 5% 4%
South West 4% 7%
Wales 1% 4%

By Fiona Garcia

Source: DIY Week

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Andrew Turner: Landlords should consider remortgages

Now is the time for landlords to review their existing portfolios and consider remortgaging to a lower, fixed rate buy-to-let mortgage, Andrew Turner, chief executive of Commercial Trust has argued.

He said this because of a variety of products in this competitive market, and the base rate being held at 0.75% yesterday, with Bank of England governor Mark Carney warning of possible interest rate rises in the future.

Turner (pictured) said: “The present window of opportunity for what may seem favourable buy-to-let conditions in a few months’ time, may be closing.

“For landlords with a buy-to-let mortgage on a variable or tracker rate, the implications of a rates rise or fall can change their annual payments by hundreds of pounds

“In an atmosphere where rates are almost at historic lows, the prospect of monthly payments increasing on a variable or tracker rate mortgage, should the Bank increase the base rate, will seem very unappealing.

“A fixed rate mortgage is safeguarded against base rate changes for the duration of its term, while variable and tracker rate mortgages might be susceptible to any changes. Mr Carney’s suggestion is that rates are more likely to go up rather than down.”

Moneyfacts has found that there are over 2,000 products available in the buy-to-let market now, a 12-year high.

Turner added: “A conversation with a specialist buy-to-let broker, can help to identify a clear strategy and the right type of buy-to-let deal for individual circumstances, faced with such choice.”

With a sluggish housing market, Turner said that tenant demand remains undiminished, as those unable to afford to buy a home, seek accommodation in the private rental sector.

He suggested for those with money to spend, the current environment may offer opportunity to invest in buy-to-let with lower house prices, soaring tenant demand and historically low interest rates.

Turner said: “I would suggest anyone holding off at the moment, faced with these facts, to consider what they are waiting for?

“The bigger question is how long current conditions will last? Mr Carney’s suggestion is that a change in interest rates is just around the corner. That could mean that the competitive deals currently available, may soon evaporate with any base rate change.

“So, whether you are a first-time landlord or considering remortgaging, while time is currently on your side regarding interest rates, how long will that last?”

By Michael Lloyd

Source: Mortgage Introducer

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New housing and more schools feature in ‘vision for the future’ for East Renfrewshire

A VISION of how East Renfrewshire will develop over the next 10 years has been set out by council chiefs.

Councillors will consider a draft strategy outlining the local authority’s long-term ambitions at a meeting today.

The revised ‘Vision for the Future,’ originally launched in 2015, reveals how the council will address five key outcomes.

These are early years and vulnerable young people; learning, life and work; environment and economy; safe, supportive communities; and older people and people with long-term conditions.

A report to councillors states: “East Renfrewshire is a modern, ambitious council, creating a fairer future with all. Our mission is simple: to make lives better for the growing numbers of residents who choose to live here.

“East Renfrewshire, however, faces many of the same challenges as the rest of Scotland over the next 10 years.”

These challenges include population growth, changes in the world economy, climate change and rapid developments in technology.

“The financial landscape for the public sector has become increasingly challenging, with councils having to find significant year-on-year savings while continuing to deliver services that meet the growing and more complex needs of local people,” the report adds.

In East Renfrewshire, this has meant making savings of over £54million since 2011, with a further £22m to be made by 2021.

Over the next decade, the council plans to significantly expand nursery provision, increase support for young people with additional support needs and ensure fewer children and families are in the care system.

The draft strategy states that increasing demand for places in schools will see a growth in the number of classrooms.

The council also wants East Renfrewshire to be a key tourist destination, with better rail and bus services and improvements to park and open spaces.

In addition, it plans to build at least 4,350 houses by 2029.

Vision for the Future also commits to continuing work to reduce CO2 emissions, as well as encouraging electric cars and ensuring any new-build housing is as energy efficient as possible.

And, for older people, there will be a shift away from hospital wards to community alternatives for those who require long-term or round-the-clock care.

Source: Barrhead News

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Rates to be held at 0.75% as Brexit ‘fog’ overshadows growth spurt

The Bank of England’s latest rates decision comes amid signs that Brexit stockpiling has boosted recent economic growth figures.

Bank of England policymakers are set to hold interest rates at 0.75% on Thursday as Brexit uncertainty overshadows a strong start to the year for the economy.

The Bank’s latest rates decision – which will be accompanied by its quarterly Inflation Report forecasts – comes amid signs that Brexit stockpiling has boosted recent economic growth figures.

Data suggests the economy may have expanded by at least 0.4% in the first quarter, up from 0.2% in the final three months of 2018.

But this was largely due to “no deal” precautionary stockbuilding ahead of the original March 29 Brexit deadline and relatively mild weather, which experts believe will unwind in the April to June quarter.

The MPC may see the extension of Brexit as prolonging the uncertainties facing the UK economy and increasing downside risks

Howard Archer, EY Item Club

The latest manufacturing sector survey figures suggest this has already started, with a slowdown in activity seen in April after a surprisingly buoyant March.

Given the six-month EU departure delay, the “fog” of Brexit – as Bank Governor Mark Carney put it earlier this year – is unlikely to lift for some time and policymakers are seen remaining firmly in wait-and-see mode.

Howard Archer, chief economic adviser to the EY Item Club, said: “The MPC (Monetary Policy Committee) is likely to hold off from hiking interest rates until the Brexit situation becomes clearer and it can see how the economy is responding.

“Indeed, the MPC may see the extension of Brexit as prolonging the uncertainties facing the UK economy and increasing downside risks.”

Investec economist Philip Shaw said worries over the state of the global economy have also increased in recent months, which is “likely to provide the main argument for keeping rates steady this time”.

But economists are increasingly expecting pressure building for the MPC to consider raising rates later in 2019.

Investec believes one member – Michael Saunders – may even vote for a hike on Thursday.

The Bank is expected to nudge its 2019 growth forecasts higher in the accompanying inflation report thanks to the stockpile-boosted first quarter.

It slashed its growth forecast to 1.2% in the February report, which would mark the weakest expansion since 2009, when the economy was in a recession following the financial crisis.

The Bank may also up its inflation outlook, despite the Consumer Prices Index remaining steady at 1.9% in March, with rising oil costs and the recent increase in Ofgem’s energy price cap set to have an effect.

“The MPC will find a case for higher rates increasingly compelling as the year draws on,” said Mr Shaw.

He is pencilling in a hike to 1% in November, although this is based on a Brexit deal being reached, while Mr Archer said the odds favour rates being held throughout 2019.

The Bank’s rates announcement also comes after the Treasury announced last week that it had kicked off the search for Mr Carney’s successor.

It is using a headhunter for the first time to look for a replacement ahead of his departure next January.

Source: Express and Star

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Limited company buy-to-let criteria is the battleground for lenders

Half a decade ago, there would have been few in the mortgage market who might have predicted limited company buy-to-let as one of the major growth areas in the years ahead. Without reckoning on some considerable government and regulatory intervention, how could they know?

But, that’s exactly what the buy-to-let sector and landlords have been subjected too, and while there appears to be no let up in that regard, the market has shifted to accommodate how landlords might wish to take their portfolios forward and how they can try and secure the mortgage interest tax relief which has been steadily cut for those holding properties in their own names.

While we might not have seen a big move of existing rental properties into limited company vehicles – blame the stamp duty increase for that – landlords are now much more likely to purchase new properties within a limited company vehicle, and because of this, even our very biggest buy-to-let lenders have needed to respond to the shifting nature of the sector.

Indeed, as time goes by, and landlords see how the ongoing cuts to mortgage interest tax relief impact on their profitability, you can’t help wondering if – even with the large stamp duty outlay – landlords might feel they need to bite the bullet and move existing properties (held in their individual names) into those limited companies.

I suspect that if these landlords are looking at holding these properties over the very long-term then a decision might be made to take the stamp duty hit now, rather than later when the property’s value might increase that payment. It is though a fine line to tread as a mortgage adviser and the last thing you should be doing is weighing into such a debate if you’re not also a specialist tax advisor.

Instead, if your client comes with you and wants to discuss this, and they have not already done so with their tax specialist and secured their advice, then you might want to curtail any conversation until they have done so. It may well be the right thing for the client to do but you don’t want to be the individual blamed for such ‘advice’ if its later found out not to be.

Overall, however, the growth in limited company business has come predominantly via new purchase activity and, as mentioned, there are now few buy-to-let lenders who are not offering products for this type of lending. Just last week the Saffron Building Society launched its limited company buy-to-let mortgage and while it perhaps won’t have the considerable impact that its mutual cousin, Nationwide, did when it moved into the sector, it is another potential product option for advisers with clients in this market.

Indeed, you might perhaps say that the limited company buy-to-let client is now incredibly well served in terms of product numbers, and the real battleground for lenders is around the criteria they offer to landlords. Pricing is competitive but what seasoned portfolio landlords are likely to want is a significant degree of flexibility in terms of the administration burden placed upon them in trying to secure a mortgage.

We’ve certainly seen a shift in this direction too, with a number of lenders not requiring business plans now or insisting on a complete run-down of every other property in the portfolio, when it is unrelated to the property which requires a mortgage. While the client’s existing portfolio should be understood, and I completely understand why lenders don’t want to be over-exposed to one landlord or indeed certain types of property, lenders might be historically viewed as over-sensitive in this area. Again, that appears to be changing as increased competition has made itself felt.

There is also an argument that we are at saturation point when it comes to buy-to-let propositions. I saw a recent roundtable of ostensibly bridging lenders who voiced a similar concern and appeared to be coming to the common-sense view that, while they might wish to be involved in the buy-to-let market, unless they could come to it without something new and unique, or they were willing to go incredibly high up the risk curve, there appeared little point in them moving in that direction.

Overall, however, when it comes to finance options, the market appears to be rosy for landlords. Wider problems around increased costs and decreased profitability might persist, but the tenant demand is there, and if they can get new property at the right price, in the right area, within the right tenant demographic, then buy-to-let remains a strong investment for them. And advisers will be fully in demand to work out the best finance to support their activities.

Source: Mortgage Introducer

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First Time Buyers Helped by Weak House Price Growth

House price growth in the UK remained subdued for the fifth month in a row in April, according to the latest figures from Nationwide.

House prices in the country grew 0.9% in April compared to the same time last year – a slight rise from the 0.7% annual growth seen in March. Annual house price growth has in fact been below 1% every month since December 2018. However, house prices actually fell month-on-month in April, dropping by 0.4% in April. According to the Nationwide House Price Index, the average price of a home in the UK is now £214,920.

Before the Brexit referendum in 2016, house prices in the UK were growing by around 5% each year. But as many market analysts have mentioned Brexit uncertainty as a cause of the subdued growth seen recently, the stagnating prices have helped to attract a growing number of first-time buyers to the market.

The number of mortgages being taken out by first-time buyers today is approaching the levels seen before the global financial crisis in 2008. As well as the slow growth of property prices, first-time buyers are also being attracted to the housing market due to high employment rates, real wage growth and low mortgage rates.

“While the number of properties coming onto the market has also slowed, this doesn’t appear to have been enough to prevent a modest shift in the balance of supply and demand in favour of buyers in recent months,” said Robert Gardner, chief economist at Nationwide.

“While the ongoing economic uncertainties have clearly been weighing on consumer sentiment, this hasn’t prevented further steady gains in the number of first-time buyers entering the housing market in recent quarters. Indeed, the number of mortgages being taken out by first-time buyers has continued to approach pre-financial crisis levels in recent months.”

While low mortgage rates, the strength of the labour market and projects such as the government’s Help to Buy scheme are helping first-time buyers get onto the property ladder, the biggest obstacle remains raising a large enough deposit.

“First time buyer numbers have been supported by the strength of the labour market conditions, with employment rising at a healthy rate, and earnings growth slowly gathering momentum,” said Gardner. “While house prices remain high relative to average earnings, low mortgage rates have helped to support mortgage affordability. Indeed, raising a deposit appears to be the major barrier for prospective first-time buyers.”

Jeremy Leaf, former residential chairman at RICS, said: “Soft growth in the last set of figures from Nationwide is continuing and confirmed on the high street. Clearly, Brexit uncertainty in the minds of homebuyers is still outweighing almost record low mortgage rates and employment numbers as well as improved affordability. A glimmer of good news is that first-time buyers are taking advantage, particularly of help to buy and deposits from the bank of mum and dad, not forgetting reduced competition from landlords.”

Source: Money Expert

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Bank of England downgrades its forecasts for housing market

The Bank of England has downgraded its forecasts for both mortgage lending and the housing market. It now expects less lending for house purchase, and house price falls rather than rises.

It now says that there are likely to be average of 60,000 mortgage approvals for house purchase each month between the second and fourth quarters this year. In February, it expected a monthly average  of 65,000.

The Bank has also revised down its expectations for house prices. It had expected growth of 0.25% per quarter. It now expects that house prices are likely to fall by 1.25% in the year to Q4.

It released its latest report after gathering views from estate agents.

It said: “Contacts of the Bank’s agents have reported that in some regions, such as southern England, an excess of supply of housing has led to a widening gap between asking and offered prices.”

The report also notes that the housing market has been weak since the referendum and that Brexit-related uncertainties have weighed on house prices, alongside “many other factors”.

It says that Brexit uncertainty is particularly important for “large, hard-to-reverse spending such as on housing than it is for day-to-day expenditure”.

It says some households have delayed buying or selling homes, while affordability constrains have had a likely effect.

It also says that changes to the buy-to-let market, including the surcharge in Stamp Duty and lower mortgage interest relief, have reduced demand.

The Bank released its latest inflation report as it decided to keep base rate at 0.75%.

By ROSALIND RENSHAW

Source: Property Industry Eye