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Owners of new-build homes ‘spend £200 more on energy after standards axed’

Owners of newly built homes are being hit with higher heating bills because tough new energy efficiency standards were scrapped, a report has said.

If the “zero carbon homes” policy had been implemented as planned in 2016, people moving into new homes would be saving more than £200 a year on their energy bills, the Energy and Climate Intelligence Unit (ECIU) study said.

The zero carbon homes policy was first devised in 2007 as a requirement that new-build homes would not result in the net release of any carbon dioxide into the atmosphere, and was set to be implemented in 2016, the report said.

But it was scrapped in July 2015 by then chancellor George Osborne – after having been watered down since it was first announced – as part of plans to boost productivity, including increasing house building.

The report from ECIU said building a home to zero carbon standards would in theory add 1-2% on to the purchase price.

But it suggested the impact of the help to buy scheme, which critics have said enabled sellers to ramp up prices because buyers only need to find a small deposit, on house purchase costs is much greater.

The extra costs of the more efficient homes would be recouped through energy bill savings within a few years and may even have been absorbed by developers, the study argues.

As well as future-proofing new homes, the policy would have saved families money, reduced Britain’s vulnerability to energy supply shocks, and cut carbon emissions

Dr Jonathan Marshall, ECIU

Since the beginning of 2016, some 380,000 homes have been built, and their heating efficiency falls short of what would have been needed to meet the zero carbon homes standards.

Current new-build homes require more than twice the energy to heat than a zero carbon home would have done – which based on current retail gas prices will have cost a cumulative £122-£137 million in England, the report claims.

Families who moved into their homes at the start of 2016 will have been paying on average an extra £208 to £233 a year per year to heat their houses, it said.

If current house-building rates continue, by the end of 2020, the amount of wasted energy to heat these less efficient homes will be more than £2 billion, using up enough extra gas to fuel 3.3 million homes for a year.

And it makes it harder to cut carbon emissions from homes, a necessary part of tackling climate change, and one where experts say the first step should be increasing efficiency.

Dr Jonathan Marshall, ECIU head of analysis, said: “Successive governments have struggled to devise effective domestic energy efficiency policies, meaning carbon emissions from homes are rising, but zero carbon homes could have made a real difference.

“As well as future-proofing new homes, the policy would have saved families money, reduced Britain’s vulnerability to energy supply shocks, and cut carbon emissions.

“Tackling new-build homes is one of the easiest ways of improving the UK’s leaky housing stock, and reintroducing this policy could also deliver a boost to firms involved in insulation and low-carbon heating.”

Paula Higgins, chief executive of the Homeowners Alliance, added: “Homes should be built to the highest standards to be fit for this and future generations. Government and industry need to recognise that it’s in everyone’s interest to get this right.”

Minister of State for Housing Kit Malthouse said: “I don’t agree with the assertion that energy efficiency regulations have been watered down – in fact new homes built in England have increased in efficiency by over 30% since 2010.

“As well as cutting carbon emissions to tackle the threat of climate change, our efforts have actually put an average of £200 a year back into the pockets of families.

“There is more we can do to secure more efficient homes and, following our ongoing review of Building Regulations, we will likely consult on further energy saving proposals later this year.”

Source: Shropshire Star

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UK firms investing billions abroad because of Brexit

The UK government hopes that Brexit will make the UK a better place to do business, but new numbers from the Centre for Economic Performance (CEP) show that the opposite is happening. UK firms are voting with their money and offshoring new investments to the rest of the EU.

The study finds that the Brexit vote has led to a 12% increase in new foreign direct investment (FDI) projects by UK firms in EU countries, a total increase in foreign investment of £8.3bn. A no-deal Brexit would further accelerate the outflow of investment from the UK.

This is the first systematic, evidence-based analysis of how the Leave vote has affected outward investment by UK firms. The findings support anecdotal evidence that fears about Brexit are causing UK companies to move investments elsewhere in Europe.

The report, by CEP experts Holger Breinlich, Elsa Leromain, Dennis Novy and Thomas Sampson, found:

  • The Brexit vote has led to a 12% increase in the number of new investments by UK firms in EU countries.
  • The estimated increase totals £8.3bn (over the period between the referendum and September 2018). To the extent that increased investment in the EU would otherwise have taken place domestically, this represents lost investment for the UK.
  • The data show no evidence of a ‘Global Britain’ effect. There has not been an increase in investment by UK firms in OECD countries outside the EU.
  • Higher outward investment has been accompanied by lower investment into the UK from the EU. The referendum reduced the number of new EU investments in the UK by 11%, amounting to £3.5bn of lost investment. This illustrates how the UK is more exposed to the costs of Brexit than the EU.
  • The increase in UK investment in the EU comes entirely from higher investment by the services sector. Brexit has not affected foreign investment by UK manufacturing firms. This suggests that firms expect Brexit to increase trade barriers by more for services than for manufacturing, perhaps because the government has prioritised the interests of manufacturing over services in the Brexit negotiations by focusing on reducing customs frictions, while ruling out membership of the EU’s single market.

The report’s findings support the idea that UK firms are offshoring production to the EU because they expect Brexit to increase barriers to trade and migration, making the UK a less attractive place to do business.

Holger Breinlich said, “Our results show that Brexit has already led to an investment outflow from the UK of over £8bn.

“These outflows are likely to accelerate substantially in the event of a no-deal Brexit.”

Dennis Novy said, “The economic risk of Brexit is larger on the UK side of the Channel. British firms feel compelled to invest more in the EU but not the other way around.

“Combined with existing evidence that the Brexit vote has already affected the UK economy through lower real wages, slower GDP growth and fewer firms starting to export to the EU, the initial signs are that ‘Project Fear’ may turn out to have been ‘Project Reality’.”

Thomas Sampson said, “The data show that Brexit has made the UK a less attractive place to invest.

“Lower investment hurts the economy and means that UK workers are going to miss out on new job opportunities.”

Source: London Loves Business

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House Prices Down 2.9%, Halifax Reports

House prices in the UK fell by 2.9% last month, according to Halifax’ latest report.

The January decrease comes after 2.5% growth in December 2018. House prices grew by 0.8% in the year to January, down from the 1.3% annual rise seen in December. This is the second time in the last three years that house prices have seen a monthly drop in the first month of the year. The average house price in the UK now stands at £223,691 by Halifax’ calculation.

“Attention will no doubt be drawn towards the monthly fall of -2.9% from December to January, the second time in three years that we have seen a drop as a new year starts,” said Russel Galley, managing director at Halifax.

“However,” he added, “the bigger picture is actually that house prices have seen next to no movement over the last year, with annual growth of just 0.8%.

“This could either be viewed as a story of resilience, as prices have held up well in the face of significant economic uncertainty, or as a continuation of the slow growth we’ve witnessed over recent years.”

Analysts have suggested the uncertainty surrounding Brexit is putting off potential buyers, and that the outlook of the UK’s housing market in 2019 will depend on the transition the country faces after we leave the EU on March 29.

“January is often a tough month, in which sellers who have failed to shift their home in the previous year typically cut the price in order to drum up interest,” said Jonathan Hopper, managing director of Garrington Property Finders. “But the confidence-sapping uncertainty of Brexit is getting worse, not better, and the next few months will be decisive.”

The significant role of Brexit in the slowdown of the housing market was reiterated by Mark Harris, chief executive of mortgage brokers SPF Private Clients. “Flat growth is probably the best we can hope for, given the current tricky political situation we find ourselves in,” said Harris. “Brexit has caused a slowdown in purchase activity as would-be buyers sit on their hands, waiting for the outcome before committing to something as major as buying a new home.”

Russell Galley said: “There’s no doubt that the next year will be important for the housing market with much of the immediate focus on what impact Brexit may have. However, more fundamentally it is key underlying factors of supply and demand that will ultimately shape the market.

“On the supply side the most constraining factor to the health of the market is the shortage of stock for sale, although this does support price levels. On the demand side we see very high employment levels, improving real wage growth, low inflation and low mortgage rates. All positive drivers tempered by the challenges of raising deposits. On balance therefore we expect price growth to remain subdued in the near term.”

However, some analysts are holding out hope that the housing market could yet see an upturn after the initial impact of Brexit.

Andy Soloman, founder and CEO of business growth advisers Yomdel, said: “The coming months are likely to bring some small green shoots of price stability and once we emerge from our Brexit blanket in to the cold light of day having reached an agreement, further stability and upward growth should return to the market.”

Source: Money Expert

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UK economy at weakest since 2012, as Brexit, global worries bite

UK economy slowed sharply in late 2018, pushing annual growth to a six-year low as worries about Brexit hammered business investment and a weakening global economy weighed on trade, data showed on Monday.

Quarterly growth fell to 0.2 percent between October and December from 0.6 percent in the previous quarter, in line with forecasts in a Reuters poll, while output in December alone dropped by the most since 2016.

“Brexit uncertainty, a slowing global economy and the persistent financial squeeze on consumers and businesses (are) increasingly having a suffocating effect on economic activity,” British Chambers of Commerce economist Suren Thiru said.

Sterling fell a third of a cent to below $1.29 after the data, before recovering.

Businesses are increasingly concerned about the lack of a plan for March 29, when Britain is due to leave the European Union.

Prime Minister Theresa May has faced strong parliamentary opposition to an agreement she reached with Brussels to avoid reimposing checks on goods exported from Britain.

For 2018 as a whole, UK growth dropped to its lowest since 2012 at 1.4 percent, down from 1.8 percent in 2017 and weaker than the euro zone, which has outpaced Britain since 2016.

Last week the Bank of England chopped its forecast for growth this year by 0.5 percentage points to 1.2 percent, which would be the weakest year since the 2009 recession.

Other major economies around the world also slowed in late 2018, due in part to trade tensions between the United States and China.

Monday’s data showed a net trade deficit lopped more than 0.1 percentage points from Britain’s fourth-quarter growth rate. Falling business investment did similar damage.

Japanese carmaker Nissan cancelled plans to build a new car model in Britain last week, saying Brexit uncertainties made it harder to plan for the future.

“GDP slowed in the last three months of the year with the manufacturing of cars and steel products seeing steep falls and construction also declining,” Office for National Statistics statistician Rob Kent-Smith said.

In December alone, the economy contracted by 0.4 percent, the biggest fall since March 2016.

Chancellor Philip Hammond said the data showed the economy remained “fundamentally strong” and that Britain’s Office for Budget Responsibility did not foresee a recession.

“The economy has come in ahead of the OBR’s forecast for 2018, and that is in the context of a weakening world economy and increasing concerns about trade tensions around the world,” he told the BBC.

Business investment dropped 3.7 percent in the fourth quarter compared with a year earlier, the biggest fall since the first three months of 2010, when Britain was emerging from recession. Investment has contracted for four consecutive quarters, the longest run since the third quarter of 2009.

Household spending – which offered an unexpectedly strong boost to growth in mid-2018 – remained resilient, up 1.9 percent on a year ago, and government spending picked up.

Source: UK Reuters

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Rising Midlands property prices boosting auctions success

Midland property investors are defying Brexit pessimism and benefitting from the region experiencing the fastest rising house prices in the UK, an expert at Bond Wolfe Auctions claims.

Gurpreet Bassi, chief executive of Bond Wolfe Auctions, was speaking after new figures from property website Zoopla revealed Birmingham, Leicester and Nottingham were the country’s first, joint second and joint fourth highest regions respectively for price rises since the June 2016 referendum to leave the EU.

Mr Bassi said: “Despite all the Brexit doom and gloom, we are seeing switched-on Midland property investors who buy bargains at auctions, and then refurbish and sell them back into the market, enjoying a sharp rise in their fortunes.”

The Zoopla survey found that house prices have grown fastest in Birmingham (up 16 per cent), Manchester and Leicester (both up 15 per cent) and Nottingham and Edinburgh (both up 14 per cent), mainly because economic and political uncertainty caused by the Brexit vote was more acutely felt in southern English cities.

“These findings come on top of ongoing trends that have been developing in recent years and highlight just how beneficial it is buy homes in the Midlands today.

“The fastest and most efficient way to do this is by auction and we have a regular supply of competitively priced homes that can be bought at the fall of the hammer.

“This is particularly beneficial for investors looking to refurbish for profit, as they not only add value to properties they have bought at a bargain but they then capture a second bonus because Midland house prices are outstripping the market.

“This bonus can also be enjoyed by landlords seeking to increase their buy-to-let portfolios and by first-time buyers, as they could quickly find themselves sitting on a very healthy profit driven by the Midlands’ surging ahead as the fastest growing region for house prices,” said Mr Bassi.

He added: “In short, it’s time for property investors to fill their boots while house prices in the Midlands are rising so healthily, and there’s no better place to do this than in our auctions.”

Bond Wolfe Auctions, which has its headquarters on Colmore Row, Birmingham, with further offices in West Bromwich and Wolverhampton, was launched in January by Bond Wolfe, one of the region’s leading property consultants. The team behind the new business is led by Mr Bassi and managing director Ian Tudor, until recently the heads of residential and commercial auctions at the Bigwood auctions business.

The company’s first auction on March 13 at Villa Park is one of six that Bond Wolfe Auctions is lining up for 2019.

Source: Express and Star

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First time buyers cease to chase market

First time buyers have ceased to chase the housing market and pay proportionally more than home movers, as Brexit uncertainty and affordability concerns take hold.

Analysis by home finance provider Gatehouse Bank, has found the number of areas where first time buyers were willing to pay more to secure a foot on the property ladder has plummeted 98.8 per cent year on year, signalling a strengthening buyers market.

Doncaster in South Yorkshire was the only area where first time entrants to the property market were prepared to pay slightly more than home movers.

In 2017 the same study found 81 areas where first time buyers were chasing the market.

While affordability and Brexit uncertainty have played a significant part in the decline, according to the report, so too has the continued slowdown in house price growth across the country.

The latest Halifax House Price Index revealed that prices in the three months to January were a mere 0.8 per cent higher than in the same three months a year earlier, with the average house price being £223,691.

Charles Haresnape, CEO of Garehouse Bank, said: “First time buyers are an interesting group because they are a bellwether for affordability and the wider housing market.

“In the round, they are acutely sensitive to whether they are getting good value because it can have a significant impact on how quickly they are able to lower their finance costs and move up the ladder in the future.

“If first-time buyers are chasing the market to a larger degree than home owners, it is a bullish sign for prices.

“When they do a volte-face like this, people should take notice because first-time buyers are the new blood that keeps a market on its feet higher up the ladder.

“This trend could right itself over the next year, but only if wage growth continues to beat inflation and there is confidence in the economic outlook.”

Greg Cunnington, director of lender relationships and new homes at Alexander Hall, said: “It is not surprising to see that first time buyers are looking to not pay over the odds.

“It is a strong buyer’s market currently with the Brexit uncertainty, putting the purchaser immediately in a strong position.

“We also have a climate where there is more stock availability for first time buyers thanks to the Help to Buy scheme, which is proving incredibly successful, and means first time buyers are more likely to be willing to walk away from a property knowing that other options will be available.”

Data from UK Finance published in January showed 35,000 first time buyer mortgages were completed in November 2018, a rise of 5.8 per cent on November 2017.

Meanwhile, a number of lenders have announced reduced rates on high loan-to-value mortgages to assist first time buyers in getting on the property ladder.

Analysis from Moneyfacts last week (February 8) showed the average two-year fixed rate at the maximum 95 per cent loan-to-value (LTV) tier has fallen by 0.54 percentage points.

Commenting on the data, Darren Cook, finance expert at Moneyfacts, said: “There clearly seems to be a concerted drive by mortgage providers to try and secure the business of potential FTBs, who are the lifeblood of the mortgage and property markets and it is encouraging to see rates decrease as a result of some healthy competition.”

Source: FT Adviser

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House prices start the year in a slump as Brexit weighs on the market

House prices suffered their biggest monthly fall since last April after dropping 2.8% between December and January.

The latest Halifax House Price Index shows it is the largest monthly drop since last April when average values fell 3.1%.

Price growth crawled upwards on an annual basis by 0.8% in January, putting average prices at £223,691.

Russell Galley, managing director at Halifax, said: “Attention will no doubt be drawn towards the monthly fall of 2.9% from December to January, the second time in three years that we have seen a drop as a new year starts.

“However, the bigger picture is actually that house prices have seen next to no movement over the last year, with annual growth of just 0.8%.

“This could either be viewed as a story of resilience, as prices have held up well in the face of significant economic uncertainty, or as a continuation of the slow growth we’ve witnessed over recent years.

“There’s no doubt that the next year will be important for the housing market with much of the immediate focus on what impact Brexit may have.

“More fundamentally it is key underlying factors of supply and demand that will ultimately shape the market.

“On the supply side the most constraining factor to the health of the market is the shortage of stock for sale, although this does support price levels.

“On the demand side we see very high employment levels, improving real wage growth, low inflation and low mortgage rates.

“All positive drivers tempered by the challenges of raising deposits. On balance, therefore, we expect price growth to remain subdued in the near term.”

Commenting on the figures, Lucy Pendleton, director of estate agents James Pendleton, said: “This is a handbrake turn as the monthly course of house prices reaches new heights of volatility.

“The air of political uncertainty and low supply is sending the market into a bit of a spin.

“The long-term holding pattern in prices ahead of Brexit is abundantly clear, and overall measures of consumer confidence have been scraping five-year lows.

“However, if the UK does enjoy a good EU exit, then a relief rally could be in store given the plentiful government support for buyers, cheap borrowing and rising wages coupled with low supply.”

Source: Property Industry Eye

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Government housing targets under fire from UK watchdog

The government’s method used to assess the number of homes needed to fix Britain’s housing crisis is “flawed”, according to the UK’s public spending watchdog.

In a damning new report published today, the National Audit Office (NAO) has said that the government’s planning system “is underperforming and cannot demonstrate that it is meeting housing demand effectively”.

Such remarks add to growing pressure facing the government, which has pledged to support the delivery of 300,000 new homes ever year by the middle of the next decade.

“For many years, the supply of new homes has failed to meet demand. From the flawed method for assessing the number of homes required, to the failure to ensure developers contribute fairly for infrastructure, it is clear the planning system is not working well,” said Amyas Morse, the head of the NAO.

Morse added: “The government needs to take this much more seriously and ensure its new planning policies bring about the change that is needed.”

Ian Fletcher, director of real estate policy at the British Property Federation, said: “The findings from today’s report by the National Audit Office must be taken seriously by politicians. We have seen positive changes to national planning policy over the past year, but progress cannot be made without more resource at a local level. Planning has seen some of the most severe reductions in spending in recent local government cuts.”

Despite the government’s 300,000 target for the mid-2020s, the NAO said today that on average only 177,000 had been developed annually between 2005 and 2018, with the number failed to exceed 224,000.

The news comes in the same week as London mayor Sadiq Khan has faced accusations of “falling short” on housing targets after new figures showed home registrations tumbled 10 per cent last year.

There were 16,069 new home registrations in 2018, down from 17,932 the year before, according to the National House Building Council (NHBC), a warranty and insurance provider for new homes in the UK whose statistics provide an indication of the health of the market.

Andrew Boff, member of the London Assembly which scrutinises the mayor, said: “Before he was elected, the mayor said that delivering affordable housing would be his number one priority. Yet Khan has consistently failed to reach his own housing targets and these new figures show that he continues to fall short.”

Source: City AM

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Bank of England hints at rate hike under orderly Brexit

The Pound managed to eke out some gains against its major peers on Thursday, after the BoE hinted that it could raise interest rates in the UK, should Theresa May manage to force a Brexit deal through parliament.

Communications out of the BoE yesterday were fairly mixed. Sterling had initially fallen after Governor of the Bank of England Mark Carney talked up the downside risks to growth posed by Brexit. Policymakers slashed their GDP growth forecasts for this year to just 1.2% from the previous 1.7% estimate. Carney also stated during his press conference that under a worst case ‘no deal’ Brexit, there would be a sudden loss of confidence in the UK among foreign investors, which could send the UK into recession.

Losses for the UK currency were, however, quickly reversed after Carney opened the door to an interest rate hike later in the year. Carney said that the markets were right to keep the possibility of a hike on the table and that the UK economy would rebound under a softer Brexit.

We think that the upward move in the Pound is indicative of the general optimism that markets currently have regarding an eventual passing of the Brexit deal. Under our base case scenario of a delayed, albeit successful and somewhat orderly EU exit, we still think that the Bank of England will raise interest rates towards the end of this year. This would be unambiguously positive for the Pound.

Euro sell-off continues on weak German data

The Euro continued on its gradual path of depreciation yesterday, edging towards the 1.1325 level against the US Dollar this morning for the first time in two weeks.

The sell-off that we’ve witnessed in the EUR/USD rate this week can largely be attributed to the recent soft economic data out of the Euro-area. German industrial production numbers out on Thursday were particularly troublesome. Output in the industrial sector of Europe’s largest economy contracted again in December by 0.4% and by a sizable 3.9% year-on-year (Figure 1).

Retail sales in Italy, which entered into its first recession in five years in Q4 2018, also came in negative, while the European Commission once again downgraded its growth forecasts for the Euro-area’s economy. The EC now expects the bloc to expand by just 1.3% this year, down from 1.9% last year. This is considerably below the levels that are conducive of higher interest rates from the European Central Bank.

Figure 1: German Industrial Production (2012 – 2018)

Bank of England hints at rate hike under orderly Brexit Commercial Finance Network
Source: Thomson Reuters Datastream Date: 07/02/2019

Today looks set to be a relatively quiet one in terms of economic news, with no major releases scheduled out of the US at all today. We will instead tentatively turn our attention to major US news out next week, namely the delayed US inflation and retail sales numbers. If, as much of the market expects, data out of the world’s largest economy begins to turn south, we could see the EUR/USD rate retrace some of its losses in the coming sessions.

Source: Ebury

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FCA keeps close eye on UK commercial property funds

The UK financial watchdog is seeking daily updates from commercial property funds following significant withdrawals from the sector in December.

The UK Property sector saw £315m in outflows during December. It is seen as particularly vulnerable to any problems from Brexit, as international buyers are an important source of demand for commercial property.

At the same time, investors have become increasingly concerned about the weakness in the retail sector. Landlords are being forced to accept non-commercial terms from tenants in difficulties.

The FCA is taking an interest because the last time the sector saw significant outflows, the funds had to stop investors redeeming their shares. Investors couldn’t get their capital out for a period of time. This happened in the wake of the Brexit vote in 2016 and during the global financial crisis in 2008. The funds ultimately reopened and investors could trade as normal.

The largest funds, including those from M&G and LGIM, hold property shares and cash to help them meet redemptions. They would otherwise have to sell off large buildings quickly, which can be difficult. They may also need to sell their prize buildings – for which there is the strongest market – while hanging on to their existing, weaker buildings.

Investors using investment trusts to access the commercial property sector aren’t affected by the problems.

Source: Your Money