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UK house price growth falls to six-year low in weak start to 2019

UK house prices almost stopped growing altogether in January as the annual growth rate fell to almost a six-year low, figures reveal today.

The 0.1 per cent growth rate was just a fifth of December’s own sluggish 0.5 per cent rate of annual growth, Nationwide’s data showed, and its worst since flat growth in February 2013.

However, month on month prices grew 0.3 per cent at the start of 2019 compared to a 0.7 per cent slip between November and December.

That left the average UK house price at £211,966.

Robert Gardner, Nationwide’s chief economist, said: “Annual house price growth almost ground to a complete halt in January.

“In particular, measures of consumer confidence weakened in December and surveyors reported a further fall in new buyer enquiries towards the end of 2018. While the number of properties coming onto the market also slowed, this doesn’t appear to have been enough to prevent a modest shift in the balance of demand.”

He blamed the UK’s uncertain economic outlook for the drop, given the backdrop of a record employment rate and strong wage growth.

“Near term prospects will be heavily dependent on how quickly this uncertainty lifts, but ultimately the outlook for the housing market and house prices will be determined by the performance of the wider economy – especially the labour market,” Gardner added.

Andy Soloman, founder of estate agent adviser Yomdel, concurred, saying Brexit continues to weigh on the housing market as people wait to see how the UK’s exit unfolds.

“Unfortunately for the nation’s homeowners, the Brexit inspired ups and downs that have plagued the market over the last year seem to have remained as the UK continues in its struggle to leave,” he said.

“Going forward we should see a fairly muted performance in the short term, but mortgage rates remain low, wages are creeping up and employment growth is strong, and this will bring an air of stability and consistency if nothing else.”

Samuel Tombs, chief UK economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics, called it a “sentiment-led deterioration” that mirrors a drop in consumer confidence back in November as the Prime Minister’s difficulties with gathering support for her withdrawal agreement became clear.

“Looking ahead, increasing numbers of prospective house-buyers likely will wait a few months for Brexit uncertainty to fade, forcing sellers to lower asking prices to attract braver buyers in the interim,” he added.

“As a result, year-over-year declines in house prices in the near-term should not be ruled out.”

Source: City AM

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The rise of self-build lending

Colin Field, CEO of Saffron Building Society, takes a closer look at the intricacies of self-build mortgage lending and why lenders and brokers should be involved

Last year we saw an increase in the number of self-build enquiries at Saffron Building Society.

For all of us in the industry, I believe this is going to be a growing segment over the coming years but the application process can be difficult if you aren’t prepared.

I wanted to share some of our experience to help brokers manage it more efficiently to unlock this growing opportunity.

Why is self-build booming?
An Ipsos MORI poll suggested that one in seven Britons expect to consider building their own home, which equates to around seven million people.

The 2017 Home Owners Survey reported that the quality of housing was also a contributory factor. 57% of adults considered it to be a problem, up from 52% the year before.

In addition, new builds are not popular, with almost twice as many people preferring an older home (49%) to a new build (19%). Obviously, it would be wrong to categorise all new builds in this way but it’s possible to see the trends.

The rise of new entrants
In financial services, we’re all accustomed to hearing about new fintech companies shaking up the market.

The construction industry is experiencing a similar revolution.

In May 2018, City AM reported on a company which is developing a new technique to solve construction problems. The founders believe that three problems need to be addressed in the current UK housing market – affordability, sustainability and quality.

Anyone able to overcome all three will be well positioned to thrive.

The company manufactures parts off site, then delivers and assembles them in a location of the buyer’s choosing.

The entrepreneurs believe this is the first time that modular housing has been supplied to a higher standard than the average new build, but at a lower price. This is achieved through the use of new materials, specifically ‘cross-laminated timber’ or CLT.

CLT is increasingly being used in the UK housing sector for its low environmental impact and versatility. And it’s particularly useful for modular or custom housing because it’s easy to modify.

Common problems
If you are unfamiliar with the intricacies and nuances of self-build, then it could pay to invest some time to learn more about it.

At Saffron Building Society our underwriters have years of experience assessing complex applications, so they see the common problems and errors in self and custom-build applications. Here are some of the most common problems:

• Planning consent – all applications must be accompanied by full planning consent. If consent is unavailable, it will be impossible to proceed with the application. Planning consent can take approximately 12 weeks, sometimes longer depending on the type of construction. Without it, a mortgage valuer can’t assess the value of the property so it is one of the essential aspects of the application.

• Build costs – In some instances it is clear that applicants have not fully considered the costs of the build, and detailed costings are always required when applying for a mortgage. A lack of detail about costs will set the alarm bells ringing. A fixed price contract with the builders always provides more certainty, and without one more information will be required.

• Affordability – a common but surprising mistake is that people forget they will need somewhere to live while their house is being built. Rental costs affect affordability and have to be included. Additionally, people need a contingency plan with savings to fall back on in the event of unexpected events. No matter how well a project is estimated, there may be unknown costs that crop up along the way.

• Warranties – a warranty provides the guarantee that future problems will be fixed by those responsible for the build. However, construction warranties come in many different shapes and sizes. Before submitting an application it’s important to check the warranty the applicant has in place and make sure that it’s acceptable to the mortgage provider who will usually have a list of acceptable warranties. It’s also important to be aware that people are increasingly using architect’s certificates, but this is a little riskier and will need further investigation by the mortgage provider.

• Stage payments – can often cause applicants a problem as they find it difficult to provide a definitive time they want the money. We try to work as flexibly as possible with borrowers as we have experience dealing with the many different variables which occur during a house build. However, to ensure a swift response, we need to understand the applicant’s needs in respect of how they require to draw down the stage payments.

2019 and beyond
There is a growing body of traction to suggest that self and custom-built homes will assume an increasing proportion of the mortgage market.

Specialism and expertise in this area will mean you can be active and gain experience in a growing segment of the market.

Source: Mortgage Finance Gazette

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Brexit isn’t the real market threat

2019: it’s the year of living dangerously, not least for forecasters. I aimed to do a ‘year ahead’ piece in January, but the politicians kept moving the goalposts. Forget trying to predict how the year will unfold; writing even a week ahead of publication threatens serious pratfalls.

The PM may have at least temporarily wrenched a bit more breathing time on Tuesday night’s vote, but only after losing her previous ‘meaningful vote’ by a meaningfully historic margin, scraping through a confidence vote and having contended with parliamentary chicanery that would have shamed the court of the Borgias. That said, here goes.

Firstly, I don’t think the housing market will fare much differently than if the ‘B’ word had never reared its head. London house prices were falling anyway and were too high – George Osborne’s 2015 tax changes triggered the meltdown.

For would-be house buyers, I’m convinced Brexit stops being a factor north of about Highbury Corner, apart from odd pockets of the rest of the country within a mile or so radius of a Waitrose.

Even in London’s Remainer heartlands, deal volumes show signs of stabilising, albeit at a low base, a trend supported by the latest RICS survey. (It’s worth scanning the agent comments at the back, which this month seem more circumspect than in the past couple or so years.)

Buyers are hardly racing back into the market, but sellers are finally conceding that their homes are now worth 20% to 30% less than they feverishly imagined when they first marketed them countless months ago. My forecast: prices not falling much more and a slight, stuttering, revival in deal levels, as sellers meander back and forth from reality.

Dwindling buyers

There is one exception: London’s high-end ‘zombie’ sites. The latest Molior report, for Q4, shows 7,012 units completed, the second highest number in the decade since the financial crisis and up 20% year on year, in a market with dwindling buyers – only 4,873 sales in the period. Sales have been falling faster than new construction starts and a record 65,000 units are being built in the capital, 48% of them unsold – the highest since 2012. Many sites are no longer viable and construction is stalling.

My prediction: developers with deeper pockets will hope to ride out the storm, others will blink first. Prices will spiral downwards offering housing associations some ‘des res’ opportunities. Rents will come back under pressure in the capital as another wave of distressed blocks comes on to the market.

Back in the real, mainstream UK property world, prices are rising modestly in the rest of the country, but with falling volumes, partly due to resistance to pricing. While Brexit appears not to be as obsessed over as it is at London supper parties, ‘Project Fear’ has led many would-be buyers to sit on their hands.

My guess: there could be the start of downwards pricing pressure, resisted by mortgage lenders more than buyers. Banks and building societies are getting twitchy about capital ratios and risk (perhaps due to Bank of England Governor Mark Carney’s gloomy pronouncements) and, I hear, are leaning on valuers to come in under asking prices.

Housebuilders also face pressure from rising material and labour costs, which is putting margin pressure on existing sites and should pull back land values. However, fears of skill shortages look wildly exaggerated and should be addressed by the EU Settlement Scheme.

Labour threat

A greater immediate supply-side danger for the property industry is the risk of supplier failures due to cashflow problems. Consultant Turner & Townsend has warned clients that this will be exacerbated by a squeeze on margins.

An even greater risk than full-on Brexit to the real estate sector may be a snap election and a Corbyn government. Shadow chancellor John McDonnell seems to be an ‘all property is theft’-style socialist and in November proposed the collective ownership of land. I’m loath to get overtly party-political, but with this and his thinly-veiled disdain for commerce, I’d suggest a tweak to the old anti-Blair campaign posters: Old Labour, new danger?

Source: Property Week

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Struggling retail sector dragging down north’s commercial property sector

A WEAK retail sector is dragging down an otherwise strong commercial property market in the north, according to a new report.

The latest RICS and Ulster Bank Commercial Market Survey, covering the last three months of 2018, shows

a decline in demand for retail space, largely driven by changing shopping habits.

The figures further reveal that enquiries for retail property have fallen for the fourth consecutive quarter.

The outlook for the industry is no brighter, with an expectation retail rents will continue to fall over the next three months.

The retail performance is in direct contrast to the overall picture, with the north one of only a small number of UK regions to report an increase in occupier demand (10 per cent of respondents)

Investment enquiries are also reported to have picked up for the first time in nine months.

The encouraging figures were boosted by the industrial and office sectors,which both reported an increase in demand, the former from a net balance of 26 per cent of respondents and the latter, 48 per cent.

The rental outlook is also positive for the next three months, particularly within the office sector, while

enquiries regarding office and industrial assets are on the increase.

RICS Northern Ireland chairman, Brian Henning said the retail figures mar an otherwise positive market performance.

“Changes in the preferences and behaviours of consumers are resulting in a continually challenging landscape for the retail sector,” Mr Henning said.

“On the other hand, sentiment amongst surveyors remains relatively positive in the industrial and office sectors, which is encouraging in the face of uncertainty. Retail aside, expectations for the market are also relatively upbeat considering the landscape.”

Gary Barr, relationship director for commercial real estate at Ulster Bank added:

“The downturn in high street retail has been most keenly felt in our secondary centres. Investor demand for office and industrial has remained robust and prime assets in Belfast city centre are most in demand.”

Source: Irish News

Rental Tracker
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Rental Tracker Reports Buy To Let Rents Up

The latest Your move England and Wales Rental Tracker for December has shown eight regions post annual rental increases.

Despite the Christmas period often registering a slowdown as tenants are reluctant to move over the festive season, the rental tracker showed that 2018 bucked the usual trend with rental prices rising on both a monthly and annual basis.

Across all of England and Wales rental prices rose by an average of 1.8 per cent throughout the last year, finishing up at an average of £865 per calendar month (seasonally adjusted).

The strongest annual rent inflation was seen in the South West according to the rental tracker, while on a monthly basis in December the West Midlands posted the strongest performance.

Annual growth in the South West was measured at 4.1 per cent to reach an average monthly rental of £702 per calendar month. Three regions still have higher average rents than the South West, though average rents dropped in two of those regions.

The East of England has an average rent of £881 per calendar month, but this represents an annual fall of 1.4 per cent compared to December 2017.

The South East of England saw rates continue to rise by 1.2 per cent according to the rental tracker, to just short of the £900 mark at an average of £897.

There was good news for buy to let property investors when it came to yields, with the rental tracker finding each of the ten regions recording the same average yields as in the previous month of November.

Average rental yields across England and Wales also remained the same at 4.3 per cent.

The North East and North West regions continue to offer the best rental yields for landlords, with yields of 5 per cent and 4.8 per cent respectively.

National Lettings Director at Your Move, Martyn Alderton, commented: ‘While the rental market tends to wind down as we reach the end of the year, there were still some positive advancements this year, with prices rising in all but two regions.’

He continued: ‘While landlords in most areas saw their yields squeezed in 2018, there was good news as returns held firm between November and December.’

Source: Residential Landlord

Sterling
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Sterling resilient as Britain pursues Brexit deal change

Sterling recovered on Wednesday after declines triggered by the UK parliament’s rejection of amendments to delay Brexit, as investors bet the government would still avoid exiting the European Union without an agreed divorce deal in place.

Growing expectations that Britain can avoid a no-deal Brexit have fuelled a 3 percent rally in the pound this month against the dollar and the euro.

But sterling fell 0.7 percent on Tuesday after lawmakers voted to demand Prime Minister Theresa May renegotiate the terms of Britain’s exit and they rejected an amendment that would have postponed the scheduled departure date of March 29.

However, lawmakers also approved a non-binding amendment that said Britain should seek to avoid a no-deal Brexit, and analysts said the risk of such a disruptive exit had risen only slightly. Goldman Sachs, for example, put the chances at 15 percent compared with an earlier 10 percent forecast.

By 1635 GMT, sterling was flat at $1.3070, roughly a cent below where it traded before Tuesday’s vote.

Against the euro, the pound rose around 0.15 percent to 87.4 pence.

Traders are trying to figure out whether May’s Conservative Party rallying around her has increased the chances of her securing concessions from the EU – which would likely boost sterling – or has pushed Britain toward further deadlock and uncertainty.

The currency had gained before the vote on expectations that parliament would approve a divorce deal on time or would extend the Article 50 deadline of March 29. Analysts said not much had changed on that front.

“The market is still giving a very low probability to a no-deal,” said Sarah Hewin, chief Europe economist at Standard Chartered, which still sees chances of hard Brexit at 20 percent. “The sense I get is people feel that is a negligible prospect.

“But chances of an extension to Article 50 are rising. That probability is looking more likely than not with each day that goes by.”

Analysts at BNP Paribas agreed, advising clients to stay long sterling and seeing a Brexit delay as “inevitable”.

The renewed uncertainty caused money markets to reduce expectations that the Bank of England would raise interest rates in 2019. The probability is now only 52 percent, compared with 64 percent on Tuesday before the vote.

“The market is taking the view that as long as Brexit uncertainty persists it’s going to be difficult for the BoE to raise rates. As we are now in the realm of extending Article 50, it means uncertainty is also extended and that’s the rationale behind the pricing,” Hewin said.

Source: UK Reuters

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House price inflation slows to 2.7% across UK cities

House price growth across UK cities has reduced steadily across 2018 and currently stands at +2.7% when comparing December 2018 with December 2017, Zoopla’s UK Cities House Price Index has found.

The slowdown has been driven by price falls in London (-0.2%) and Cambridge, which has seen prices drop 3.8% annually while the rate of growth has slowed across Southern cities.

Richard Donnell, research and insight director at Zoopla, said: “Weaker growth in London, Cambridge and Aberdeen has been a large drag on the headline rate of house price growth across the UK cities index over the last year.

“House prices in London have been falling for almost 12 months while the rate of growth has slowed across cities in southern England, a result of growing affordability pressures, higher transaction costs and increased uncertainty.

“The strongest performing cities are outside south eastern England where affordability remains attractive and employment levels are rising.

“We expect current trends in price growth to continue across the rest of this year, with prices rising in line with earnings for much of the UK but lower growth and some house prices falls in London and the South.

“London will continue to register price falls, concentrated in inner London where prices have grown the most over the last decade. Prices continue to increase slowly in the more affordable outer and commuter areas of London.”

Northern, Midlands, Scottish and Welsh cities all lead the way for annual growth with Edinburgh’s average price up 6.8% annually; Liverpool up 6.3% and Birmingham, Nottingham and Cardiff all seeing prices increase by 5.9%.

There’s a clear North-South divide when it comes to house price growth. The 13 cities in its ‘20 cities index’ posting the highest growth are all located in the North, Scotland, the Midlands or Wales with Bristol in the South West the exception.

Other than Aberdeen, where the housing market has suffered due to oil prices, the ‘bottom seven’ cities are all in the South or East of England.

Some 10 cities have posted double digit growth since the 2016 vote, with Birmingham (pictured) (+16%) and Manchester (+15%) leading the charge.

In a reversal of fortunes, leaders in the broad recovery phase (London, Oxford and Cambridge) are now amongst the very poorest market performers post-Brexit vote.

Southern cities that outperformed during the broad recovery phase are now experiencing significantly decelerated growth, as economic and political uncertainty is more acutely felt here.

Source: Mortgage Introducer

affordable flats for rent
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New flats for rent strategy aims to increase Edinburgh’s affordable homes

A strategy to encourage developers to build affordable flats for rent – despite concerns it could lead to “high end” developments with gyms and cafes, is to be pursued by Edinburgh City Council.

It is hoped a build to rent plan, where developers bring forward homes to let rather than purchase, will lead to house-building at a quicker pace.

The Capital is grappling with rising rental costs. The average monthly private rent in Edinburgh is currently £1,087 – compared to the Scotland average of £799. Over the last year, Edinburgh’s average rent has soared by 4.8 per cent.

Council officials will speak to developers and the build to rent industry to come up with a policy to support the initiative and “accelerate housing development” – with affordable homes set to be key to any strategy.

The council’s planning policy requires build to rent developers to provide 25 per cent of on-site affordable housing. Housing and economy convener, Cllr Kate Campbell, said: “Build to rent can be a positive part of the housing mix in the city.

Because it’s a long term investment, homes tend to be good quality and public spaces are well maintained, with extra thought put into how new developments will become sustainable communities that people want to live in. “The question for us in Edinburgh is around affordable development. Our biggest priority is building affordable homes in the city.

There have been several examples of BTR developments being let off their affordable contribution in other local authorities, particularly in England. “This is not something we would consider in Edinburgh and we want to work with the industry to work out how best to deliver affordable homes in a built to rent context.”

In a report to the council’s housing and economy committee, officers warned that build to rent developments have “traditionally been associated with the high end, upper quartile of the rental market, offering on-site amenities such as gyms, cafes and concierge services within managed housing developments”.

It adds that “high land costs” in the Capital need to be recouped by developers through rent to make schemes financially competitive. Vice housing and economy convener, Cllr Lezley Marion Cameron, said: “I think, given the uniqueness of our housing situation and the cost of living here, we need to be open-minded.

“There is this misperception that it does only cater for the high end. It has been delivered where all the housing through this model can be affordable.” But the council’s head of place development, Michael Thain,  said he “wasn’t aware” of any developments where build to rent scheme had provided 100 percent affordable homes.

Green Cllr Claire Miller said: “In Edinburgh we are facing an extreme housing shortage and build to rent is one of the ways that new homes can be provided more rapidly.

“I support proposals to work with housing associations and businesses to develop the council’s policy on these rented homes. People who rent deserve high quality affordable places to live. “ Conservative housing spokesperson, Cllr Cameron Rose, added: “I think there are many other reasons why the market is releasing housing so slowly and one of those is the council and its planning processes and its slow responses. “It’s not just a question of people holding back to maximise sales.”

Source: Edinburgh News

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Why hasn’t modular housing taken off yet?

Modular has long been hailed as a solution to a housing crisis that has left workers in England and Wales needing to fork out eight times their annual income to buy a house, according to ONS data published in 2018.

The homes are quick to assemble and are cost-efficient, they are built to last and they leave a much smaller carbon footprint than traditional housing. Off-site construction also means fewer builders are required, which solves another problem facing the industry – a shortage of skilled workers.

Last week Birmingham City Council proudly announced that they were to build the city’s first council-built modular home, yet in other countries, modular houses already make up a significant proportion of homes, with around 84% of homes prefabricated in Sweden using timber elements.

So why aren’t modular homes more popular in the UK?

Past misconceptions

Three million new social homes must be built in England over the next two decades to solve the crisis, according to a January report by the charity Shelter. At least 1.2 million homes are needed for younger families, who can’t afford to buy and face a lifetime in expensive – and insecure – private renting.

One of the key issues is that when we hear the term module housing, we often think of the prefabricated homes that were erected to address the post-Second World War housing shortage.

From spring 1946, more than 156,000 pre-fab houses were erected across the UK in record time as a temporary solution envisaged to last no longer than ten years. The houses were typically bungalows and while much-loved by residents, were built in a style which gained a bad reputation for being low quality and unsightly.

Although a few are still standing – a testament to their construction – the homes are poorly constructed by today’s standards.

‘As for the “pre-fab” image, modular homes have very little in common with the inter-war “homes for heroes”‘ says Jessie Wilde, relationships & projects manager at the Bristol Housing Festival.

‘Today’s modular homes are precision-manufactured, energy-efficient homes with high levels of quality control,’ he adds. ‘Their construction methods are more sustainable than traditional methods and modern factories can offer better working environments than building sites.’

Luke Barnes, CEO at Ideal Modular Homes, adds: ‘Some people may have a misconception of modular from post-war homes. However, since the 1940’s there have been major advancements in technology and building materials.

‘Here at Ideal Modular homes, all our properties surpass building regs standards, are precision built in just 5 days and to an unmatched level of quality,’ he says.

Although modern modular homes look nothing like their previous incarnations, some people fear factory-built housing would leave families living in tiny, “identikit” homes. Traditionally, too, homes in the UK have been built with brick or stone rather than wood, which is often used to construct modular housing.

Tackling the ‘change averse’ planning system

There are also challenges when it comes to off-site construction. More money is required upfront to invest in the factories required to build homes, which can deter developers, and they are also costly to run. Factories that create modular housing require economies of scale, but the industry is relatively small (compared to Sweden, for example). There is also a more general fear of change when it comes to replacing the more “traditional” system of house-building.

‘Like anything made on a production line, the modules can be made quickly in high volume and to a quality standard at a low cost,’ says Nick Fulford, CEO of modular housing brand nHouse. ‘As a result many people, including the UK government, see volume modular housing as the solution to supplying enough housing in the UK and improving quality levels.

‘Until recently the modular housing industry was held back by a lack of innovative house designs, inexperience in how to make factories work, an unsupportive mortgage and lending sector and negativity from local planners,’ he adds.

Most local planners are very conservative and ‘change averse’, Fulford says, adding they thought modular homes would be of poor quality and design.

‘Until recently companies have struggled because the experience wasn’t there, the designs were not right, the mortgages were not available and the amount of capital investment to set up a factory is substantial,’ he adds.

Wheels slowly turning

Things are now changing, albeit slowly. Last year, Berkeley Homes announced their aim to build 1,000 modular homes a year out of their new factory in Ebbsfleet, Kent. The insurance giant Legal & General opened their factory in Leeds in 2016, with the aim of producing 4,000 modular homes a year.

Modular homes have been planned for Bristol too, Wilde adds. ‘Modular build is used on constrained and unconventional sites because units can be lowered in by crane. For example, ZEDpod modular homes, exhibited at the Bristol Housing Festival launch, are designed for land outside the development plan such as existing car parks and hard standings.

‘Last October, Bristol City Council committed to investing in six rapid-build, modular homes from ZED Pods. The ZEDpods will be offered to people in housing crisis later this year, subject to planning.’

‘New companies like nHouse have joined the industry offering high-quality homes. There are now around 20 factories up and running and the industry is gaining in experience, the BOPAS accreditation scheme means that main lenders like Natwest and Santander are offering mortgages and the UK government has really got behind ‘modern methods of construction’ like modular.’

The Buildoffsite Property Assurance scheme (BOPAS) is a risk-based evaluation which demonstrates to funders, lenders, valuers and purchasers that homes built from non-traditional methods and materials will stand the test of time for at least 60 years.

Moreover, people who want to own their own homes – and who have been priced out of the property market – are less interested in how their houses are built. It’s more about whether they will last and suit their needs and tastes.

‘With billions now being invested the UK government would like our industry to supply around 60,000 homes a year within a decade,’ Fulford says. ‘So it’s going to be much more common to see all sorts of modular homes around Britain.’

Source: Environment Journal

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London house prices dip over 2018

London house prices dipped in 2018, with uncertainty looming large over the capital in spite of double-digit growth across many of the UK’s other major cities.

Property prices in London tumbled 0.2 per cent last year, according to new data which underlines fears of a slowdown in activity across parts of the capital’s housing market over recent months.

However, other major UK cities have shown more resilience despite confidence hitting the capital in the wake of the Brexit vote, with Birmingham and Manchester seeing prices rise by 16 per cent and 15 per cent respectively since June 2016.

“Weaker growth in London, Cambridge and Aberdeen has been a large drag on the headline rate of house price growth across the UK cities index over the last year. House prices in London have been falling for almost 12 months while the rate of growth has slowed across cities in southern England, a result of growing affordability pressures, higher transaction costs and increased uncertainty,” said Richard Donnell, research and insight director at Zoopla.

Donnell added: “The strongest performing cities are outside south eastern England where affordability remains attractive and employment levels are rising. We expect current trends in price growth to continue across the rest of this year, with prices rising in line with earnings for much of the UK but lower growth and some house prices falls in London and the South.”

Evidence of growth in areas outside of London comes on the same day as the Mortgage Advice Bureau said that there had been a “positive end to 2018 as the market is still busy in the run-up to Christmas”, with areas such as Yorkshire and the Humber, as well as the East and West Midlands, exceeding seasonal expectations.

Source: City AM