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Lenders and brokers ‘too quiet’ over PRA Buy to Let changes

Mortgage lenders and brokers have been too quiet over the Prudential Regulatory Authority’s (PRA) changes to buy to let lending, according to the National Landlords Association (NLA).

The NLA says that despite the significant regulatory changes to lending criteria and the application process for portfolio landlords, introduced by the PRA over the last 18 months, more than half 55% were still unaware.

The findings, from the NLA’s Quarterly Landlord Panel, shows that just 8% of landlords said their lender had been in touch about the changes, with 16% saying they had been contacted by their broker.

Almost seven in 10 landlords 68% said neither their lender nor broker had made contact with them about the changes. However, the findings show that brokers and lenders may have concentrated their efforts on larger portfolio landlords, with 26% of portfolio landlords saying their broker had been in touch, and nine per cent saying their lender had made contact.

Richard Lambert, CEO at the NLA said:

“The PRA’s changes will greatly affect the ability of landlords to find new finance and continue to provide good quality affordable housing to those who need it”.

The NLA says that it’s vital landlords are supported through the changes, having issued broad advice earlier in the year urging landlords to contact their mortgage broker or bank before committing to any new property or finance.

“We hope that that the reason such a significant number of landlords haven’t been contacted is because their existing deals are simply not yet close to expiry. However, it’s in lenders’ and brokers’ own interests to speak to landlords about the changes sooner rather than later, otherwise it could mean a missed opportunity in terms of new business.

“If landlords don’t get the right support and information about how the changes will impact their existing loans, then it could mean higher finance costs that many just won’t be able to absorb”.

Source: Property118

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Two years on: how Brexit has affected the UK economy

The UK economy was supposed to plunge into recession soon after the vote to leave the EU, but the majority of forecasters were wrong.

Consumer confidence remained positive, encouraging increased spending, despite a slowdown in almost every other sector of the economy. As household consumption is a large contributor to GDP growth, it more than offset weakness elsewhere, painting a picture of success for those backing Brexit.

However, the growth in consumption to its fastest rate since 2005 was totally unsustainable. As the pound plunged after the vote, the cost of imports rose for manufacturers and retailers. This did not deter shoppers at first; indeed, households reduced their savings rate to record low levels in order to fund the post-Brexit splurge.

How inflation has affected household and business spending

Eventually, inflation caught up and households were forced to cut back, causing the economy to slow sharply over 2017. The UK went from being the fastest growing economy in the G7 to the slowest.

Businesses had started to postpone and cut investment projects as far back as 2015, well before the referendum result was known. Since then, business investment has fallen further, only to recover a little in recent months. It grew by just 2.4% in 2017, half the rate averaged between 2011 and 2015. Moreover, the initial surge in foreign direct investment (FDI) after the fall in the pound has now ended. There was an 82% fall in inward FDI in Q4 2017 compared to Q4 2016. Instead, pessimism has taken hold with planning focused on the worst-possible outcome. Some companies have even started to relocate staff, for fear of facing restrictions on their ability to do businesses.

Looking ahead, UK economic growth is likely to be sluggish at around 1.4% in 2018. With inflation forecast to average 2.6%, the UK will feel like a stagflationary environment for some time. As for 2019, the outlook is very uncertain. We assume a transition period will be agreed that preserves the status quo of the single market and customs union membership, but this is unlikely to help growth recover much.

When will the Bank increase rates?

Meanwhile, the Bank of England (BoE) is closely monitoring Brexit events and the reaction in the economy. After aborting a rate hike in May, the consensus has shifted dramatically away from a rise in the near term, to one possibly by the end of the year (63% chance priced by markets).

The next BoE Inflation Report is due in August, which provides the Bank another opportunity to consider its policy stance, but given recent weakness in both UK and overseas data, the bank rate is likely to remain on hold.

We forecast the BoE to hike once more in 2018 (November), and two more times in 2019 after the 29 March Brexit deadline.

Source: City A.M.

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Better later than never? Property market springs back to life in May

The typical spring bounce in the property market may have started slightly later this year, as HMRC data shows a 12.1% boost in transactions during May.

HMRC’s property transactions statistics had registered a fall in sales during April, but the latest data suggests a more positive market.

The taxman recorded 95,480 residential property transactions last month, up 12.1%  on April  but down 1% annually.

All UK regions saw a monthly rise, with the Welsh market up 25.2% to 4,460 transactions, and England saw a 12.4% boost in sales to 80,900.

Transactions in Scotland were up 3.6% to 7,970 on a monthly basis while Northern Ireland saw a 10.8% jump over the month to 2,150 deals.

Compared with the same period last year, Wales and England were down just 0.4% and 0.5% annually, while Scottish transactions slid 7%.

Only Northern Ireland saw an increase in sales annually, up 1.8%.

The figures are less impressive on a seasonally adjusted basis, up 0.8% between April and May, and 0.5% annually to 99,590.

Commenting on the non-adjusted figures, Neil Knight, business development director of Spicerhaart Part Exchange & Assisted Move, said: “While we are still nowhere near the levels we were seeing before the credit crunch – when the number of transactions had risen constantly over a number of years to reach a peak of around 150,000 per month – it is a marked increase, and could suggest we will start to see a bit of an uplift, especially in the new build sector.

“We are currently working with a range of house builders that have got lots of big developments in the pipeline.

“The focus on new housing over the past few years – with incentives such as Help to Buy – is starting to boost the new-build sector, and while we are unlikely to hit the Government’s targets, we are at least moving in the right direction, and this should help boost the rest of the property sector too.”

Source: Property Industry Eye

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Fintech – A property technology evolution or revolution?

Proptech is a broad term used to refer to a new generation of business and business models based on new and emerging technologies that are disrupting the traditional property markets and business models. Proptech and Fintech are closely related with the overlap of these two areas being how value is exchanged and transferred. In addition to this, it is related to how information is shared and, increasingly, how transparently this is being done.

The origins of proptech date back to the 1990s when the internet began to dominate the way we communicate, and the growth of the internet in 1995/96 led to the dot-com boom, which real estate participated in, albeit quite slowly and quite reluctantly.

So, the internet in the late 1990s was the first building block that established the proptech movement.

It took quite some time in the 2000’s for businesses like Rightmove and Zoopla to get established as residential listing sites using simple internet technology to transfer information.

The real driver that has created the third and current wave of innovation, which is unprecedented and much bigger than what was going on at the early 2000s, is mobile technology, the use of apps, and also the global financial crisis.

The global 2008/9 financial crisis questioned the competence of professionals and traditional ways of doing business in the whole financial tech area, and that made innovators think about alternative ways of transmitting information and transacting assets.

In parallel with the boom of mobile technology and social media apps in the late 2000s, established a platform whereby people could think about trading their most important assets, which would typically be their house, online, through an app, and that’s still the direction we’re heading.

So the origins of proptech are the internet growth in the 1990s, then the growth of mobile apps, and the global financial crisis.

There are three sorts of applications that are currently being worked on, and each of the three proptech horizontals provides unique opportunities and challenges within the proptech space.

The first being information exchange which is a phenomenon of the fintech revolution.

The giving of information online was broadly the first use of the internet.

By consequence, the provision of information about marketplaces is the first fintech movement that has transmitted directly into real estate tech, and particularly residential listings.

Indeed, crowdfunding, as a concept, can be coupled with fintech to produce more creative ways of attracting capital to buy a property.

But it’s tech that’s enabling this business because it brings together a large market of people who want to finance property with a large pool of people who want to invest in property.

So, technology is facilitating that, simply through the efficiency of information exchange through platforms.

The second application of fintech is in transactions, which are slowly being incorporated in real estate.

Indeed, slow it is, with the principle inhibitor being the conservativism of the real estate industry, but perhaps more importantly, it’s to do with the importance and the sheer size of property assets.

Trading property online with no consumer protection, no obvious protection from human beings involved in the process, and a lack of regulation in the process is difficult for people to contemplate.

The transaction process is being facilitated slowly through technology. but there is a lot of resistance, which is very naturally due to human conservatism.

The lack of regulation of the online trading of real estate is probably holding back innovation in this area. Some efficient regulation of online trading of property, would give people much more confidence to be able to trade.

Nevertheless, we are starting to see websites that allow for properties being traded online, sign a contract online through a digital signature. As blockchain, becomes established, I can see this increasing, but it will be slow.

It also asks big questions about blockchain as a way of effecting a transaction and, again, the same question arises, where is the investor protection in blockchain?

Will people accept that the automated, codified regulation process is enough protection, or will they need lawyers and regulatory authorities to be supervising the process in order that there is some redress if anything goes wrong?

The third application of technology that’s hitting proptech is in a different area. And this is to do with the control of buildings, which can be managed through mobile apps or through computers.

So, the best example of that would be the ability to turn your heating on when you’re travelling home from your mobile phone.

And the Internet of Things and smart technology applied to real estate is increasingly well established. It’s generally associated with energy saving. So, the movement is really projected and driven by the need to save energy.

There are many effective apps, which will be developed to help us save energy in homes, and to switch things on and off, and to increase our security, and so on. Those different proptech applications are driven partly by fintech and partly by construction and architecture.

In summary, the property sector is evolving with things much more transparent and computable than they ever were before.

Coupled with technologies like blockchain and AI, which are making the processing of that data, and the transference into actual contracts, almost completely automatic.

How long will it be before you’ll be able to buy an entire building with one click, and that’s it? No more documents and reams of paper and checks of the title and such like.

It’ll all be understood in these digital systems in such a way that you can just say, finance it, buy it, and that’s it.

Source: Mortgage Introducer

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Last-time buyers struggle to find the homes they want

Last-time buyers are struggling to find houses to move to, as the potential financial gains from downsizing are not high enough and they cannot find suitable homes in their local area, Key Retirement has found.

Nearly one in three (30%) of over-65s homeowners – the equivalent of 1.45 million owners – are considering downsizing in the next five years to a more suitable home for retirement.

But across the country more than 620,000 over-65s homeowners said they have looked into downsizing but cannot find a suitable home in their area, while another 500,000 said they’ve considered moving but would not be much better off financially.

Dean Mirfin, chief product officer at Key Retirement, said: “Downsizing should make financial sense for older homeowners as it releases money to pay for retirement and it also should make sense for the property market as a whole as it frees up bigger houses.

“But despite the numbers of older homeowners wanting to downsize it is clear they face problems in finding suitable homes for retirement and for many the finances just don’t add up. Unfortunately, that leaves them struggling to maintain homes, and in many cases, struggling financially.

“Pensioners are sitting on property wealth of more than £1 trillion which could significantly improve their standard of living in retirement and helping them make the best use of that money would boost their finances and the economy as a whole.”

The numbers looking to move home in retirement rose as high as 58% in the North East and 44% in the South West, underlining how many want to swap their family homes for more manageable houses.

However not being able to move in retirement is a major concern as more than half (53%) of over-65s reported keeping up with DIY jobs around the house is physically tough. And 27% reported they struggle to afford maintenance on their homes.

Just over two out of five (42%) over-65s homeowners have worries about bills and the need for repairs on their home and nearly one in five (17%) thought their house is just too big for their needs.

Around 11% of over-65s homeowners said they have already downsized, with pensioners in the North West and South East (both 13%) being the most likely to have already made the move to a more suitable house.

Nick Sanderson, chief executive of retirement housing provider, Audley Group, said that the supply of downsizing options is not keeping up with the demand.

He said: “The supply of downsizing options is simply not keeping up with demand. Instead of providing incentives and high quality housing for older generations, the housing market continues to be flooded with initiatives for first time buyers.

“That’s not to say it should be a case of ‘either, or’, but the other factor at play here is the growing population of over 65s.

“There are currently 9.9 million people over the age of 65 in England, a number that is forecast to rise by 20% over the next decade. However, only 2% of the UK housing stock is designated as retirement housing.

“The growth potential for the retirement village sector is huge, and enabling older people to move into appropriate housing will free up homes for others, creating much-needed movement in the property market.”

Source: Mortgage Introducer

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Buying a home is cheaper than renting

The average monthly rent in the UK is £912 per household, compared to monthly repayments of £723 for the average first-time buyer. This means that homeowners could save an average of £189 a month or £2,268 a year compared to renters.

Londoners could make the biggest saving, as the average monthly rent is £289 higher than monthly mortgage payments, or £3,468 a year. The smallest differential between rent and mortgage payments is in the East of England at just £43 per month

The research found that in order to get on the property ladder, 38% would consider moving back in with their parents while saving for a deposit and 21% would give up alcohol to raise the funds.

Although selling shares in a property is theoretical, 22% said they would consider doing this, with the buyer/s of the shares gaining  a potential capital return when the property is sold.

Miguel Sard, managing director of mortgages at Santander UK, said: “Many first-time buyers understandably focus on the challenge of saving for a deposit and wonder how they will afford a property. However, it is often assumed that when you purchase a property you will be under greater financial pressure and our research shows the reverse is true.”

Historically, renting has appeared cheaper, especially in areas like London and the South East, where property prices have consistently been high. But since 2010, where the economy saw a re-set, the UK has seen inflation fall and with it mortgage rates have come down significantly, meanwhile rents have steadily crept up.

Source: Mortgage Finance Gazette

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More than 100 new houses approved in Notts despite concerns about access

Plans for 110 new houses in Wollaton have been approved despite concerns being raised about access.

Outline planning permission has been granted today and more detailed designs are expected to go before Nottingham City Council’s planning committee in the coming months.

No councillor voted against the plans, however there was one abstention from Councillor Linda Woodings, who represents the Basford ward for Labour.

Access to the new site will be via Woodyard Lane.

Planning officers believe it is wide enough for two cars to pass each other but there will be some places where one car is required to wait, as part of traffic calming measures.

Cllr Woodings said: “I do live very close to the bottom of Woodyard Lane, and when I saw these plans, to me it does look like an odd access route.

“You have a lot of roads coming together in what even now feels like quite a dangerous junction.

“You have to have the neck movements of an owl to check all the directions.”

Council officer James Ashton, from the council’s highways department, said a detailed assessment had been carried out on the junction where the new housing scheme will be accessed from.

It found there had been no accidents which involved an injury in the last five years.

Mr Ashton said: “We don’t think there will be a safety issue even with the additional build up of homes.”

The site currently consists of three empty ’employment buildings’ and used to be occupied by engineering firm Siemens for offices and manufacturing; these will be demolished to make way for the new houses.

The company relocated to a new site in the city in December 2017.

The planning application was made by Michael Davies on behalf of the Nottinghamshire County Council Pension Fund.

As a condition of permission being granted a ‘financial contribution towards education’ and £3,350 towards the improvement of the footpath link between the site and Lambourne Drive will be paid.

Source: Notts TV

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Best UK market towns to live in

Egremont, Langholm, Denbigh and Carrickfergus are the best market towns in each of the UK’s four countries, according to a new study commissioned by Royal Mail. As the UK’s pre-eminent delivery company, Royal Mail is uniquely placed to observe how different market towns perform as places to live and work.

The findings are based on a number of categories in each country including average earnings, house prices, access to services, crime figures, skill level of the local population and unemployment figures. Data from the 2011 UK Census is also used.

 Cumbria and West Yorkshire come out on top in England

In England, West Yorkshire and Cumbria perform very strongly and both counties see four of their market towns entering the top ten list.

Cumbria’s Egremont takes the top spot for the country’s best market town to live and work in. The town has very low numbers of people working long hours, affordable housing and good schools. Wotton-under-Edge in Gloucestershire takes second place due to its low levels of crime and good schools making up for longer commuting distances. Cumbria’s Ulverston comes third due to the low numbers of people working long hours, low crime and good access to services. The county’s Wigton (4th) and Broughton-in-Furness (8th) also feature in the top ten.

Todmorden (5th), Elland (7th), Sowerby Bridge (9th) and Bingley (10th) are all market towns in West Yorkshire offering affordable housing, good access to greenspace and low numbers of people working long hours. Clitheroe in Lancashire takes sixth place.

The best market towns spread widely across Scotland

The top three market towns in Scotland for work-life balance are found in Dumfries & Galloway, although there is a good spread in the top ten across the Highlands, islands and the rest of Scotland.

The small town of Langholm takes the top place among the Scottish market towns due to consistently better than average scores across all the categories. Dumfries sits in second place as a result of short commuting distances, relatively few people working long hours and low unemployment. Kirkcudbright takes third place due to low unemployment, low crime and good access to services.

Dornock (4th) in the Highlands also does well due to its good services, low crime and minimal unemployment. Lerwick on Shetland (5th) and Kirkwall on Orkney (6th) feature in the top ten. Both island communities stand out in particular for their short commuting distances.

Wigtown (7th), Renfrew (8th), Campbeltown (9th) and Peebles (10th) also appear in the top ten.

There is also a wide spread across Wales

Denbigh, in the north of Wales, takes the top place scoring consistently above average across various measures of work-life balance particularly for short commuting distances and working hours. Also based in the north, Mold takes second place where low unemployment and short working hours make up for weaker school scores.

Moving south of the country, Usk takes third place thanks in particular to good schools and low crime. Towards the centre of the country, Welshpool (5th) has relatively affordable housing, low unemployment and good school scores.

Builth Wells (4th), Ruthin (6th), Monmouth (7th), Flint (8th), Dolgellau (9th) and Carmarthen (10th) also feature in the top ten.

Market towns around Belfast top the list in Northern Ireland

 The top ranking market towns within Northern Ireland are congregated around Belfast. Carrickfergus takes the top spot, scoring highly on work-life balance and affordability. Lurger has affordable housing and a good work-life balance, in terms of short commuting distances and working hours, taking it to second place. Comber is third due to good school scores, short commuting distances and working hours. Randalstown (4th) also makes the top four.

Bangor benefits from the shortest commutes of the Northern Irish towns, coming in at number five. Antrim (7th) scores well due to affordable housing and low crime.

Further afield, the small town of Dungiven (10th) just makes the top ten despite the added distance to the Capital. Here the shorter working hours and good school scores boost the town’s performance. Larne (6th), Newtownards (8th) and Banbridge (9th) also make it into the top ten.

A spokesperson for Royal Mail said “This new study demonstrates the breadth of market towns providing attractive places for people across the UK to live and work in. For people who value a good work-life balance, there are plenty of market towns to choose from. Royal Mail connects communities and businesses across the UK, delivering to nearly 30 million addresses.”

Source: London Loves Business

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The good times are over for UK housebuilders

The UK housing market has long benefited from the widespread belief that “you can’t go wrong with bricks and mortar”. And investors who bought housebuilders in recent years have been laughing all the way to the bank too. 2017 was a particularly good year for the sector, as stocks recovered from the unthinking sell-off that followed Britain’s vote to leave the EU in 2016.

But now, house price gains are slowing. In fact, prices in London fell last year, according to Nationwide, for the first time since 2009.

So is it time to take profits on the housebuilders?

The picture from housebuilders is pretty clear – the fun’s over

Recent reports from UK housebuilders paint a pretty ugly picture of the market overall.

Yesterday, retirement housebuilder McCarthy & Stone saw its share price plunge by 13%. It announced that its chief executive is set to step down this summer, and also that sales during the first quarter of this year had seen a “noticeable decline”.

What’s the problem? In short, said the builder, “a slower secondary market and a softening of pricing, particularly in the South East”.

As the FT points out, if second-hand homes are selling more slowly, that’s a bigger problem for McCarthy than for your average builder. The company is largely selling to people who are downsizing, rather than first-time buyers.

That exposes the firm to two big threats. Firstly, there’s the timing. If downsizes are taking longer to sell, with more deals falling through, then that naturally means that McCarthy & Stone’s sales will slow down too.

Secondly, a slower secondary market tends to mean falling prices. If downsizers make less money from the home they are selling, that means they have less to spend on their retirement property.

The situation is bad enough for downsizers as it is – these retirement properties are not cheap by any means, so the amount of money people hope to raise by moving house is often a lot smaller than they might have expected from hearing about years of property price inflation. Squeeze that too hard, and people might start to wonder why they’re bothering to move at all.

So it’s fair to say that McCarthy & Stone gives a pretty clear indication that the London market – and by a knock-on process, the market in the southeast – is struggling.

Crest Nicholson was another recent casualty in the sector. Last week, it warned that profit had dipped in the six months to the end of April due to “generally flat pricing” for its properties. It had also seen its costs increase.

The company is retreating from the London market. As chief executive Patrick Bergin put it: “even in the outer zones of London the pricing momentum is not with us, and absolute affordability is now quite stretched”.

The latest builder to warn on London is Berkeley Group (Full disclosure: I own Berkeley. I bought it in the post-Brexit vote panic when everything related to property in the UK and London in particular was being flogged off indiscriminately. It has a good track record of coping with the cyclical nature of the building industry).

This morning, the company posted a big jump in pre-tax profits for the year to the end of April 2018. However, the big profit was driven partly by investments in cheap land bought between 2010 and 2013, which means profits are set to fall sharply next year by comparison – about 30%, according to the company.

Tony Pidgley, the chairman of the group and someone who has done a pretty good job of weathering previous slowdowns, pointed out that “it is telling that some funders and builders are choosing to exit the market when faced with the degree of risk and regulation that now confronts development in the capital”.

The smart money is cutting back

It’s pretty clear from all this that the good times for London-focused builders are now in the rear-view mirror. But I suspect that’s the case UK-wide too.

As a non-local, I’m keenly aware that London is all too often treated as the centre of the universe by our media. However, when it comes to the UK property market, it does exert a pretty strong gravitational pull and you’d be stupid to ignore it.

London prices go up. That has a ripple effect – people who would have bought in London, buy in the southeast instead. Investors who can’t afford that then buy further out – for example, buy-to-let investors are now focusing further north, where they can still get yields that might just cover their costs if everything else goes 100% right.

But the ripple works in reverse too. The reasons behind the London slowdown – lack of affordability, alongside a realisation that being an amateur landlord is no longer a growth business – will have an impact across the board.

The bonanza days are over. The politics of Help to Buy will start looking precarious as tales no doubt emerge of early buyers under the scheme running into trouble when they try to sell. And a focus on affordability – which after all, is the key political issue here – suggests that the squeeze on pricing will continue.

Builders might find that they have to become more productive – coming up with innovative solutions as opposed to building ever more glorified rabbit hutches with multiple en-suite bathrooms. That would be a good thing, but it’s not likely to happen quickly and it’s not likely to be cheap to implement.

I also find it interesting that one of the smartest proponents of the case for house builders in recent years – Gary Channon of Phoenix (who run the Aurora investment trust) – cut the fund’s holdings in builders during the first quarter of this year from around 18% to 10%.

At the time, he noted: “Although housebuilders are good value and likely to deliver attractive long-term returns, we must recognise that the current conditions could not be more favourable in every regard and so it is reasonable to expect that the most likely future path is for a deterioration in some of these positives.”

In other words, “this is as good as it gets”.

Overall, I reckon that this marks the peak for this cycle on the housebuilding front. If you’ve made a lot of money in the sector, then good for you. It might now be time to look at protecting some of it (and yes, I’ll need to revisit my own portfolio and consider what to do about Berkeley).

Source: Money Week

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Buy To Let Market Attractive Option For Investments

The buy to let market is still an attractive investment option, according to new research.

Despite reporting that tax and regulatory changes are placing pressure on the sector, it continues to be seen as a viable and attractive investment opportunity. Even accidental landlords, who enter the sector after inheriting a property, are opting not to leave, with many adding to their business by expanding their portfolio.

New research from Foundation Home Loans found that 17 per cent of existing landlords plan to increase the size of their portfolio in the next 12 months. A growing number of these are ‘accidental’ landlords, with 14 per cent describing themselves as having joined the buy to let sector by ‘accident’ through circumstances such as marriage or relocation. 9 per cent inherited the property that they now let out.

However, of those surveyed, 23 per cent became a landlord solely for financial reasons, whilst 21 per cent planned to use the income they earned in order to fund their retirement plans.

21 per cent described themselves as full-time landlords and do not have another job. The largest proportion of these are located in London, while 19 per cent say that they have a part-time job. This leaves 60 per cent who are landlords while also having a full-time job.

Marketing director at Foundation Home Loans, Jeff Knight, explained: ‘With so much regulation introduced into the buy to let market in the last few years, it could be easy for those who are unplanned landlords to make a swift exit rather than stay and navigate the red tape. That said, no matter how they found themselves owning rental property, it’s clear landlords are interested by the buy to let market for a variety of reasons and objectives, financial or otherwise. Considering the rental sector forms an increasingly important part of the housing mix, landlords need to be armed with the right advice. Our findings indicate plenty of the accidental landlords are looking to expand their portfolios and remain invested in the market, which will ultimately have a positive impact on quality and choice for renters.’

Source: Residential Landlord