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UK house prices won’t match low inflation until 2021

UK house prices will not match low inflation until 2021 and are set to fall in London this year as buyers are put off by continuing Brexit uncertainty, according to new research.

House prices in the capital will fall 1.5 per cent this year and only hold steady in 2020, a poll by Reuters found.

However forecasts for this year ranged from a drop of three per cent to no change, while in 2020 forecasts were between a two per cent fall to growth of five per cent.

“Until we have greater certainty regarding the political environment it isn’t possible to forecast what might happen in London with the greatest accuracy,” Rod Lockhart at property finance hub LendInvest told Reuters.

“We do not anticipate a material price rebound in London until at least 2022, although we may experience some recovery from 2021 – if and when the political ‘dust’ begins to settle.”

Last month, Foxtons, the London-focused estate agent, said revenue dropped in the third quarter as Brexit uncertainty continued to weigh on the residential property market in the capital.

Elsewhere in the UK, house prices are predicted to rise one per cent this year, 1.5 per cent next year and 2.3 per cent in 2021, according to the poll of 27 property market analysts.

Meanwhile, inflation is forecast to be 1.9 per cent, 1.9 per cent and two per cent respectively.

“Regardless of what happens with Brexit in the months ahead, a revival in the housing market is unlikely,” said Hansen Lu at Capital Economics.

“Indeed, even if a Brexit deal is implemented soon, we expect to see only a small improvement in housing market transactions and house price growth over the next two years.”

By Jessica Clark

Source: City AM